Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - Last week, the soda ash futures continued to be weak, with the main contract SA2509 closing 4.31% lower than the previous week at 1,199 yuan/ton. The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week [2]. - The decline in soda ash supply has slowed down, and demand is weak. It is expected that the futures price will mainly fluctuate weakly at a low level [3]. - The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved, with supply at a high level and declining, limited improvement in terminal demand, and inventory still at a high level in the same period [7]. 3. Summary by Related Contents Weekly Market Conditions - Futures: The main contract SA2509 of soda ash futures closed at 1,199 yuan/ton, down 4.31% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The low - end price of heavy soda ash in Hebei Shahe was 1,235 yuan/ton, down 5.00% from the previous week. The main basis was 36 yuan/ton, down 23.40% [2][9]. Supply - Side Analysis - Production: Although some enterprises will reduce production next week, some previously shut - down plants will resume. In June, there are fewer maintenance enterprises, and supply is expected to increase slightly to 690,000 tons, with a capacity utilization rate of 79% [3]. - Capacity Changes: Since 2023, soda ash capacity has expanded significantly. In 2023, the total new capacity was 6.4 million tons; in 2024, it was 1.8 million tons; in 2025, the planned new capacity is 7.5 million tons, with 1 million tons actually put into production [8][27]. Demand - Side Analysis - Downstream Demand: The demand from float glass and photovoltaic glass is general. The daily melting volume of float glass is 157,300 tons, a decrease of 200 tons from the previous week, and the daily melting volume of photovoltaic glass is 98,800 tons, unchanged from the previous week. Purchases are mainly for just - in - time replenishment, and overall consumption fluctuates little [3]. - Production and Sales Rate: The weekly production and sales rate of soda ash is 107.66% [30]. Inventory Analysis - As of May 29, the total inventory of soda ash in domestic factories was 1.6243 million tons, a decrease of 3.13% from the previous week, but still at a high level in the same period [3]. Influencing Factors - Positive Factors: The capacity of downstream photovoltaic glass has increased, boosting the demand for soda ash [6]. - Negative Factors: The supply of soda ash has declined from a high level, the improvement in terminal demand is limited, and inventory is still at a high level in the same period. The mismatch between supply and demand in the industry has not been effectively improved [7].
大越期货纯碱周报-20250603
Da Yue Qi Huo·2025-06-03 04:16