Economic Overview - The trade agreement between China and the U.S. has led to the postponement of a 24% tariff increase by 90 days until August, while retaining a 30% tariff increase for the year[22] - The central bank announced a reserve requirement ratio (RRR) cut and interest rate reduction, with the LPR lowered by 10 basis points at the end of the month[22] - As of May 30, the TS2509 futures fell by 0.23%, TF2509 by 0.36%, T2509 by 0.43%, and TL2506 by 1.40%[22] Market Performance - The two-year bond TS2506 closed at 102.23 with a decline of 0.13% and an average daily transaction volume of 20,925[6] - The five-year bond TF2506 closed at 105.72, down 0.36%, with a daily trading volume of 35,919[6] - The ten-year bond T2506 closed at 108.49, down 0.51%, with a trading volume of 44,240[6] Inflation and Economic Indicators - The CPI for May showed a decrease of 0.10% compared to the previous month, while the PPI decreased by 2.70%[28] - Industrial value-added growth was reported at 6.1%, indicating continued manufacturing sector strength[28] - The trade surplus reached $36.88 billion in May, reflecting strong export performance despite tariff concerns[28] Future Outlook - The market anticipates a potential shift in tariff negotiations, which could stabilize bond futures and lead to a price increase[32] - The central bank's liquidity injection of 599.8 billion yuan in May, including a net MLF injection of 375 billion yuan, suggests ongoing support for the economy[33] - The expectation of a return to a more stable economic environment may lead to a gradual recovery in bond prices as trade tensions ease[37]
国债期货月报：关税一波三折债市持续背离202506
Zhong Liang Qi Huo·2025-06-03 05:10