大越期货聚烯烃早报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of LLDPE and PP are bearish, with the mid - term tariff negotiation results uncertain, OPEC+ increasing oil production, and the demand side in a weak state. However, the strong basis is a bullish factor. It is expected that both PE and PP will show a volatile trend today [4][7] Summary by Relevant Catalogs LLDPE Overview - Fundamentals: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. It's the off - season for agricultural films, many small and medium - sized factories are shut down, and there is still pressure from new capacity. The current spot price of LLDPE delivery products is 7120 (+20), with overall bearish fundamentals [4] - Basis: The basis of the LLDPE 2509 contract is 95, and the premium - discount ratio is 1.4%, which is bullish [4] - Inventory: The comprehensive PE inventory is 58.4 tons (-0), neutral [4] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the LLDPE main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [4] - Main Position: The net position of the LLDPE main contract is short, and short positions are increasing, bearish [4] - Expectation: The LLDPE main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and it's the off - season for agricultural film demand with new capacity pressure. It is expected that PE will fluctuate today [4] - Leveraging Factors: Strong basis [6] - Weakening Factors: New capacity launch, weak crude oil [6] - Main Logic: New capacity launch, tariff policy [6] PP Overview - Fundamentals: The official PMI in May was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from April. Tariff games are an important influencing factor, and the final negotiation result is uncertain. OPEC+ increased oil production for the third consecutive month in July, weakening cost - side support. Downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs recently, with insufficient demand for pipes and good rigid demand for packaging films. The current spot price of PP delivery products is 7100 (-50), with overall bearish fundamentals [7] - Basis: The basis of the PP 2509 contract is 182, and the premium - discount ratio is 2.6%, which is bullish [7] - Inventory: The comprehensive PP inventory is 60.4 tons (-0), neutral [7] - Disk: The 20 - day moving average of the PP main contract is downward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day line, bearish [7] - Main Position: The net position of the PP main contract is long, and long positions are decreasing, bullish [7] - Expectation: The PP main contract is expected to fluctuate weakly. The mid - term tariff negotiation results are uncertain, OPEC+ has increased production again, and downstream demand is mainly for rigid needs. It is expected that PP will fluctuate today [7] - Leveraging Factors: Strong basis [9] - Weakening Factors: Weak crude oil [9] - Main Logic: New capacity launch, tariff policy [9] Supply - Demand Balance Sheets - Polyethylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally shown a downward trend, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed accordingly [15] - Polypropylene: From 2018 to 2025E, the production capacity has been increasing, with different growth rates each year. The import dependence has generally decreased, and the apparent consumption and actual consumption have also changed [17]