大越期货股指期货早报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. Core Viewpoints - Due to Sino-US trade uncertainties, the Hong Kong stock market had a slight correction during the Dragon Boat Festival, and overseas markets were volatile with gold and crude oil prices rising. Domestic indices are expected to open slightly lower, and the market lacks a short - term main line. It is advisable to reduce positions on significant intraday rallies and add positions on significant drops [2][3]. Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Early Evaluation of Index Futures - Fundamentals: Sino - US trade uncertainties and the slight correction of the Hong Kong stock market during the Dragon Boat Festival, along with overseas market volatility, may lead to a slight lower opening of domestic indices, rated as neutral. The IC2506 and IM2506 contracts are at a discount, rated as bearish [2]. - Funds: The margin trading balance is 1797.5 billion yuan, a decrease of 1.2 billion yuan, rated as neutral [2]. - Basis: The IH2506 contract is at a discount of 11.5 points, and the IF2506 contract is at a discount of 17.83 points, rated as neutral [2]. - Market Trends: IH > IF > IC > IM (main contracts). IF and IH are above the 20 - day moving average, rated as bullish; IM and IC are below the 20 - day moving average, rated as bearish [2]. - Main Positions: The long positions of the main IH contracts decreased, those of the main IF contracts increased, and those of the main IC contracts decreased, rated as bullish [3]. 2. Futures Market - Basis and Spread - Shanghai Composite 50: The report presents the basis and spread data of Shanghai Composite 50 index futures contracts from 2021 to 2025 [4][6]. - CSI 500: The report shows the basis and spread data of CSI 500 index futures contracts from 2021 to 2025 [4][9]. 3. Spot Market - Daily Returns of Important Indices - The daily returns of important indices such as the Shanghai Composite Index, Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, and others are presented, with most indices showing a decline [12]. 4. Spot Market - Daily Returns of Style Indices - The daily returns of style indices including 300 Cycle, 300 Non - Cycle, and others are presented, with varying degrees of rise and fall [15][18]. 5. Market Structure - AH Share Premium - The report shows the trend of the Hang Seng AH Premium Index from 2024 to 2025 [21]. 6. Market Structure - Price - Earnings Ratio (PE) and Price - to - Book Ratio (PB) - PE: The historical PE data of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2004 to 2025 [24]. - PB: The historical PB data of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2004 to 2025 [26]. 7. Market Capital - Flow - Stock Market Capital Inflow: The historical data of A - share capital net inflow and CSI 300 are presented from 2021 to 2025 [28]. - Margin Trading Balance: The historical data of margin trading balance and CSI 300 are presented from 2021 to 2025 [30]. - Northbound Capital Inflow: The historical data of northbound capital net inflow are presented from 2021 to 2024 [32]. - Funding Cost: The historical data of SHIBOR overnight, SHIBOR one - week, and SHIBOR two - week are presented from 2024 to 2025 [38]. 8. Market Sentiment - Trading Activity: The historical data of turnover rates of Shanghai Composite 50, CSI 300, CSI 500, and ChiNext Index are presented from 2022 to 2025 [41][44]. - Public - Offering Hybrid Fund Positions: The report presents relevant data, but specific details are not elaborated [46]. 9. Other Data - Dividend Yield and Bond Yield: The historical data of dividend yields of index futures and the yield of 10 - year treasury bonds are presented from 2015 to 2025 [50]. - Exchange Rate: The historical data of the US dollar - RMB exchange rate are presented from 2021 to 2025 [52]. - New Account Openings and Index Tracking: The report presents relevant data, but specific details are not elaborated [53]. - Newly Established Fund Sizes: The report shows the changes in the newly established sizes of stock - type, hybrid, and bond - type funds, but specific details are not provided [55][57][59].