镍、不锈钢产业链周报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - Likely Factors: Weekly decline in Shanghai Nickel and LME Nickel inventories, reduction in domestic stainless - steel social total inventory, and inventory depletion supports prices; firm nickel ore prices, stable and rising prices of nickel iron and intermediates, and cost - side support [2] - Negative Factors: High - level refined nickel production, rising global inventories, and the continuation of the pattern of strong supply and weak demand; overall weak spot demand, short - term restocking followed by a dull trading volume, and insufficient demand improvement [2] - Trading Consultation Viewpoint: The supply - demand contradiction has not deepened, inventory depletion is unsustainable, and the short - term will maintain a range - bound pattern [2] Summary by Related Catalogs 1. Market Data - Nickel Futures: The latest value of Shanghai Nickel main contract is 121,100 yuan/ton, down 1,070 yuan (-0.88%); LME Nickel 3M is 15,305 dollars/ton, down 265 dollars (-1.51%); the trading volume is 145,554 lots, up 93,246 lots (178.26%); the position volume is 94,854 lots, up 65,523 lots (223.4%); the warehouse receipt number is 22,057 tons, down 193 tons (-0.87%) [3] - Stainless - Steel Futures: The latest value of stainless - steel main contract is 12,685 yuan/ton, down 170 yuan (-1%); the trading volume is 124,523 lots, up 25,621 lots (25.91%); the position volume is 90,669 lots, down 1,757 lots (-1.90%); the warehouse receipt number is 129,990 tons, down 9,131 tons (-6.56%) [3] - Nickel Spot: The latest value of Jinchuan Nickel is 123,525 yuan/ton, up 900 yuan (0.73%); the latest value of imported nickel is 121,175 yuan/ton, up 800 yuan (0.66%) [3] - Inventory: Domestic social inventory is 41,553 tons, down 836 tons; LME nickel inventory is 200,310 tons, up 930 tons; stainless - steel social inventory is 967.5 tons, down 6.4 tons; nickel pig iron inventory is 31,462 tons, up 1,907.5 tons [3][5] 2. Charts and Graphs - Nickel and Stainless - Steel Futures Price Trends: Include the price trends of Shanghai Nickel futures main contract, LME Nickel (3 - month) electronic disk, and stainless - steel futures main contract [7][8] - Nickel Spot Average Price Trend: Shows the average price trends of nickel beans, 1 imported nickel, and SMM 1 electrolytic nickel [10] - Supply and Inventory Trends: Include the monthly production seasonality of Chinese refined nickel, the total monthly supply of Chinese primary nickel (including imports), domestic social inventory (nickel plates + nickel beans), and LME nickel inventory [12][13] - Nickel Ore and Nickel Iron - Related Trends: Include the average price of Philippine laterite nickel ore 1.5% (FOB), Chinese port nickel ore inventory by port, Chinese nickel iron monthly production seasonality, and Indonesian nickel pig iron monthly production seasonality [14][17][20] - Downstream Sulfuric Acid Nickel - Related Trends: Include the premium of battery - grade nickel sulfate over primary nickel (plates), the profit margin of producing nickel sulfate from nickel beans, and the profit of producing electrowon nickel from externally purchased nickel sulfate in China [22][24] - Stainless - Steel - Related Trends: Include the profit margin seasonality of Chinese 304 stainless - steel cold - rolled coils, stainless - steel monthly production seasonality, and stainless - steel inventory seasonality [27][29][31]