大越期货玻璃周报-20250603

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant information provided. 2. Core View of the Report Last week, the glass futures continued to weaken. The main contract FG2509 closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week, breaking the 1000-yuan mark. The spot price of Hebei Shahe white glass also decreased. The glass market is currently in a situation of weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. 3. Summary by Related Catalogs Weekly View - Futures: The main contract FG2509 of glass futures closed at 982 yuan/ton, down 1.80% from the previous week [2]. - Spot: The spot price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [2][13]. - Supply: The production profit of the glass industry has deteriorated, the cold repair volume is high, and the supply is at a historical low. There were 225 float glass production lines in operation last week, with an operating rate of 75.73% and a daily melting volume of 157,300 tons [2]. - Demand: The seasonal off - season has arrived, the real - estate terminal demand recovers slowly, and the downstream orders are insufficient, mostly for rigid demand. As of May 29, the inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week [2]. - Outlook: The glass market has weak supply and demand, and it is expected that the futures price will fluctuate weakly at a low level [2]. Impact Factor Summary - L利多 Factors: The negative feedback of production profit is obvious, and the glass output has continuously declined to a historical low [5]. - 利空 Factors: The real - estate terminal demand is still weak, the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period, and the capital recovery of the deep - processing industry is not optimistic, so traders and processors are cautious [6]. Main Logic and Risk Points - Main Logic: The glass supply has declined to a relatively low level in the same period. Affected by the expectation of the seasonal peak season, the spot price has increased, and the downstream has replenished stocks periodically, resulting in the reduction of glass factory inventories. It is expected that the glass will fluctuate strongly at a low level [7]. - Risk Points: The industry's resumption of production accelerates, and the macro and real - estate policies fall short of expectations [7]. Glass Futures and Spot Weekly Market | Indicator | Previous Value | Current Value | Change Rate | | --- | --- | --- | --- | | Main Contract Closing Price (yuan/ton) | 1000 | 982 | -1.80% | | Spot Benchmark Price (yuan/ton) | 1084 | 1068 | -1.48% | | Main Basis (yuan/ton) | 84 | 86 | 2.38% | [8] Glass Spot Market The market price of 5mm white glass in Hebei Shahe, the spot benchmark, was 1068 yuan/ton, down 1.48% from the previous week [13]. Fundamental - Cost and Profit The profit of coal production lines has recovered, the loss of natural gas production lines has intensified, and the profit of petroleum coke production lines has turned negative [18]. Fundamental - Supply - The number of operating float glass production lines in China is 225, with an operating rate of 75.73%, and the daily melting volume is 157,300 tons. The number of operating production lines and the production capacity are at historical lows in the same period [23][25]. Fundamental - Demand - In February 2025, the apparent consumption of float glass was 4.3143 million tons [29]. - The real - estate terminal demand is weak, and the number of orders of glass deep - processing enterprises is at a historical low in the same period [6]. Fundamental - Inventory The inventory of national float glass enterprises was 67.662 million weight boxes, down 0.16% from the previous week, and the inventory was running above the 5 - year average [44]. Fundamental - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet The report provides the annual supply - demand balance sheet of float glass from 2017 to 2024E, including data on production, consumption, net imports, and their growth rates [45].