2024年拉丁美洲和加勒比经济初步概览（英）

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - Global economic growth is projected to remain steady at around 3.2% for 2024 and 2025, primarily driven by emerging economies [36][39] - The region's economic growth is estimated at 2.2% for 2024 and 2.4% for 2025, indicating a low-growth trajectory [34][36] - The region is experiencing a "trap of low capacity for growth," with average annual growth from 2015 to 2024 at only 1% [30][35] - Inflation rates are converging towards target ranges, albeit slowly, with falling inflation prompting looser monetary policies in the region [26][33] Summary by Sections Executive Summary - Global economic growth is expected to hold steady, driven by emerging economies [26] - The region's debt issuance on international markets is increasing, but net resource transfers abroad are also rising [26] - Economic activity remains low, increasingly reliant on private consumption [26] - Labour markets show modest improvements despite low job creation [26] - Fiscal space in Latin America and the Caribbean remains limited [26] - Inflation is converging towards target ranges, albeit at a slower pace [26] Global Context - The global economy is projected to grow at 3.2% in 2024, with the United States contributing significantly [36][39] - Major central banks have expanded liquidity, ending the tight monetary cycle [40][41] - Increased global liquidity has led to higher capital flows, primarily towards developed economies [46] Economic Activity - The region's GDP growth is projected at 2.2% for 2024, reflecting weak domestic demand and a smaller external contribution [51] - Economic growth in South America is accelerating, while Mexico and Central America are experiencing slower growth [52] External Sector - The region's current account deficit is expected to widen, driven by higher interest payments abroad [47] - Foreign direct investment inflows have increased significantly, accounting for 3.2% of GDP [49] - Debt issuance in international markets has risen by 35% year-on-year to US$ 98.9 billion [50] Prices - Inflation in the region is generally declining, with core and food inflation converging to central bank targets [20] Employment and Wages - Employment in Latin America grew by 1.7% in 2024, but growth in the number of employed people is slowing [85] - Real wages rose in the first half of 2024, although gender gaps in participation and unemployment persist [93][94] Macroeconomic Policies - Fiscal balances are stabilizing but remain in substantial deficit, with high public debt levels [112][113] - Monetary policy rates have been cut across the region, although some countries maintain a restrictive stance [118]