Report Industry Investment Ratings No information provided in the reports. Core Views Steel - Although the apparent demand has recovered, molten iron production has been decreasing, and the output of finished steel products will follow suit. With the expectation of weakening demand, the apparent demand is likely to decline rather than increase in the future. Steel prices have been falling, reflecting the negative feedback logic under the expectation of declining demand. The continuous decline in molten iron production will suppress iron ore prices. - The direct export of steel will help digest production, and the short - term inventory pressure is not significant, which supports the steel production at a relatively high level. However, the cost support is weak, and the decline in carbon elements has dragged down steel prices. Considering the worse demand in the second half of the year, the overall trend is bearish. The iron ore is still in the destocking phase, and its price is relatively resilient, so the negative feedback trading may fluctuate. Once iron ore starts to accumulate inventory, the downward space for steel prices will expand [1]. Iron Ore - Last week, the global iron ore shipments decreased slightly, mainly due to the decline in shipments from Brazil and non - Australia and Brazil regions. The arrival volume remained at a relatively low level. On the demand side, molten iron production continued to decline, and the profitability of steel mills also decreased slightly due to the marginal weakening of downstream demand in the off - season. - In terms of inventory, the port inventory continued to decline as the ore handling volume remained at a high level in the same period of history and the arrival volume was low in recent weeks. The steel mill inventory decreased significantly, mainly in large - scale steel mills. - Looking ahead, the terminal demand for finished products faces the risk of weakening in the off - season, but there is still some resilience. It is expected that the decline in molten iron production will be limited. Overseas mines will increase shipments to meet the fiscal year target, and the arrival peak has not yet come, so the supply pressure of iron ore will increase. In the short term, there is obvious resistance above the iron ore price, but the risk of inventory accumulation is limited due to the resilience of terminal demand. It is expected that the price will fluctuate weakly, and attention should be paid to the change in molten iron production [3]. Coke - Last week, the coke futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, the second round of price cuts for coke was implemented on May 28, and there are expectations of two or more rounds of price cuts in the future considering the weak situation of coking coal. - On the supply side, due to the decline in downstream molten iron production and the slowdown in coke sales, the coke production decreased slightly, and the coking profit improved due to the concession of coking coal prices. On the demand side, the molten iron production remained above 240,000 tons per day in May and decreased slightly last week, and the blast furnace operation rate showed signs of peaking. - In terms of inventory, the coke inventory in coking plants decreased slightly, the port inventory continued to decline, and the steel mill inventory increased slightly. The downstream replenishment demand has weakened due to the general caution in the market. It is recommended to short the coke 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke (equal value) [4]. Coking Coal - Last week, the coking coal futures continued to break through the support level. On the spot side, coking coal prices continued to decline. The futures market was more pessimistic than the spot market, showing a deep discount structure, with high hedging pressure and weak willingness of long - position holders to support the price. - The market auction was cold, and the transaction prices of various coal types decreased slightly. The supply - demand imbalance is difficult to reverse in the short term. On the supply side, the production of domestic coal mines decreased slightly but remained at a relatively high level. The price of Mongolian coal broke through the support level, and the import profit of seaborne coal remained negative, with prices stable or slightly decreasing. - On the demand side, the coking plant operation rate decreased slightly, and the downstream blast furnace molten iron production showed signs of peaking. Downstream users mainly replenished inventory on a need - to - basis. As the peak season of steel production is approaching the end, the demand may decline. The coal mine inventory is high, with pressure to reduce prices for sales, and the port inventory has increased again, while the downstream inventory is at a low level. It is recommended to short the coking coal 2509 contract after a rebound and use the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal (equal value) [4]. Ferrosilicon - On the supply side, due to the protection of a large factory in Inner Mongolia, the ferrosilicon production continued to shrink. With the continuous decline in spot prices, the losses of manufacturers increased, and the supply pressure remained. The cost may also decline, and the valuation continued to decrease. - On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The profitability of steel mills decreased slightly. In terms of exports, the export profit of ferrosilicon increased slightly as the domestic price decreased faster than the overseas price, and the export volume remained stable. - In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. Looking ahead, the supply of ferrosilicon is expected to be weak, and the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Silicomanganese - The global manganese ore shipments decreased slightly last week, and the floating inventory was concentrated in South Africa and Ghana mines. The future arrival volume of manganese ore will remain normal. In June - July, the electricity price is expected to be adjusted downward during the power spot settlement pilot period, and the overall cost may bottom out. - On the supply side, the production in Inner Mongolia increased significantly recently, and the profitability of manufacturers decreased slightly. On the demand side, the molten iron production showed a downward trend, and the downstream demand faced marginal weakening in the off - season. The demand for non - steel products, such as metal iron, was also weak. - The contradiction in the silicomanganese market is limited, but there is still a risk of cost decline. Coupled with the negative feedback expectation of demand in the off - season in the black - series market, the price is expected to fluctuate weakly [5]. Summary by Directory Steel Steel Prices and Spreads - The prices of various steel products showed different trends. For example, the price of some steel products remained unchanged, while others increased or decreased. The price of rebar 05 contract increased by 147 yuan/ton, and the price of hot - rolled coil 05 contract decreased by 41 yuan/ton [1]. Cost and Profit - The cost and profit of different steel products also varied. The cost of Jiangsu electric - arc furnace rebar increased by 104 yuan/ton, and the profit of East China hot - rolled coil was 26 yuan/ton [1]. Production and Inventory - The daily average molten iron output remained unchanged at 243.6 tons. The output of five major steel products decreased by 60,000 tons, and the inventory of five major steel products decreased by 329,000 tons [1]. Demand - The apparent demand for steel products showed some recovery. The apparent demand for five major steel products increased by 92,000 tons, and the apparent demand for rebar increased by 16,000 tons [1]. Iron Ore Price and Spreads - The prices of various iron ore varieties decreased slightly. The price of PB powder decreased by 4.4 yuan/ton, and the 09 - contract basis of PB powder decreased by 55.9 yuan/ton [3]. Supply - The 45 - port arrival volume decreased by 120,000 tons, and the global shipment volume decreased by 159,100 tons [3]. Demand - The daily average molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons, and the national pig iron monthly output decreased by 271,100 tons [3]. Inventory - The 45 - port inventory increased by 7,800 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 171,200 tons [3]. Coke Price and Spreads - The price of Shanxi first - grade wet - quenched coke remained unchanged, and the price of coke 09 contract decreased by 24 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Demand - The molten iron production of 247 steel mills decreased by 1,700 tons [4]. Inventory - The total coke inventory decreased by 3,400 tons, the inventory of all - sample coking plants increased by 8,100 tons, and the inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 5,700 tons [4]. Coking Coal Price and Spreads - The price of coking coal (Shanxi warehouse receipt) remained unchanged, and the price of coking coal (Mongolian warehouse receipt) decreased by 5 yuan/ton [4]. Supply - The raw coal output of Fenwei sample coal mines decreased by 1,600 tons, and the clean coal output decreased by 1,400 tons [4]. Demand - The daily average output of all - sample coking plants decreased by 0.5 tons, and the daily average output of 247 steel mills increased by 0.1 tons [4]. Inventory - The clean coal inventory of Fenwei coal mines increased by 20,300 tons, the coking coal inventory of all - sample coking plants decreased by 19,400 tons, and the coking coal inventory of 247 steel mills decreased by 12,000 tons [4]. Ferrosilicon Price - The price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Ningxia decreased by 50 yuan/ton, and the price of ferrosilicon 72%FeSi in Gansu decreased by 50 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Guangxi decreased by 27 yuan/ton, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The ferrosilicon production decreased by 0.4 tons, and the production enterprise operation rate remained unchanged [5]. Demand - The ferrosilicon demand remained unchanged, and the steel - making demand decreased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 60 sample enterprises increased by 0.1 tons, and the average available days of downstream ferrosilicon decreased by 1.6 days [5]. Silicomanganese Price - The price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Ningxia decreased by 20 yuan/ton, and the price of silicomanganese FeMn65Si17 in Guizhou decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Cost and Profit - The production cost in Inner Mongolia remained unchanged, and the production profit in Inner Mongolia decreased by 20 yuan/ton [5]. Supply - The silicomanganese production increased by 0.5 tons, and the operation rate increased by 2.9% [5]. Demand - The silicomanganese demand increased by 0.1 tons, and the steel - making demand increased slightly [5]. Inventory - The inventory of 63 sample enterprises decreased by 1.5 tons, and the average available days of silicomanganese decreased by 0.2 days [5].
广发期货《黑色》日报-20250603
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-03 09:49