合成橡胶产业日报-20250603

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The cost of butadiene rubber production has decreased slightly but there are still large losses, and private enterprises may further reduce their production. The supply is expected to continue to decrease as the overall overhaul of Yanshan Petrochemical starts. The spot market price of butadiene rubber has continued to decline and it's difficult to attract trading. The inventories of production and trading enterprises increased last week. The capacity utilization rate of domestic tire enterprises decreased last week and may continue to decline in the short - term. The br2507 contract may seek support downward in the short term, and it is recommended to wait and see [2] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs 1. Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of synthetic rubber is 10,875 yuan/ton, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton; the position of the main contract is 31,557, an increase of 3,140. The 6 - 7 spread of synthetic rubber is 70 yuan/ton, an increase of 95 yuan/ton; the total warehouse receipt quantity of butadiene rubber is 6,120 tons, a decrease of 90 tons [2] 2. Spot Market - The mainstream price of BR9000 butadiene rubber from Qilu Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,600 yuan/ton, an increase of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Shandong is 11,400 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton; that from Daqing Petrochemical in Guangdong is 11,450 yuan/ton, unchanged; that from Maoming Petrochemical in Shanghai is 11,500 yuan/ton, unchanged. The basis of synthetic rubber is 625 yuan/ton, an increase of 170 yuan/ton. Brent crude oil is 64.63 dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.73 dollars/barrel; naphtha CFR Japan is 780 dollars/ton; Northeast Asian ethylene price is 561.63 dollars/ton, an increase of 3.13 dollars/ton; the intermediate price of butadiene CFR China is 1,150 dollars/ton, unchanged [2] 3. Upstream Situation - WTI crude oil is 62.52 dollars/barrel, an increase of 1.73 dollars/barrel. The mainstream market price of butadiene in Shandong is 9,700 yuan/ton, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton. The weekly capacity of butadiene is 14.78 million tons/week, unchanged; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 69.3%, an increase of 1.57 percentage points. The port inventory of butadiene is 28,500 tons, an increase of 300 tons; the daily operating rate of Shandong local refineries' atmospheric and vacuum distillation units is 46.09%, a decrease of 1.19 percentage points [2] 4. Downstream Situation - The monthly output of butadiene rubber is 12.15 million tons, a decrease of 0.68 million tons; the weekly capacity utilization rate is 73.54%, a decrease of 2.03 percentage points. The weekly production profit of butadiene rubber is - 894 yuan/ton, a decrease of 279 yuan/ton; the weekly social inventory is 3.45 million tons, an increase of 0.17 million tons; the weekly manufacturer inventory is 28,100 tons, an increase of 1,100 tons; the weekly trader inventory is 6,360 tons, an increase of 560 tons. The weekly operating rate of domestic semi - steel tires is 78.25%, an increase of 0.03 percentage points; that of domestic all - steel tires is 64.8%, a decrease of 0.16 percentage points. The monthly output of all - steel tires is 1,308 million pieces, a decrease of 61 million pieces; that of semi - steel tires is 5,539 million pieces, a decrease of 427 million pieces. The inventory days of all - steel tires in Shandong is 41.96 days, a decrease of 0.9 days; that of semi - steel tires in Shandong is 46.22 days, a decrease of 0.78 days [2] 5. Industry News - As of May 29, the inventory of high - cis butadiene rubber sample enterprises in China was 3.45 million tons, a 5.06% increase from the previous period. The raw material market was weak, the supply was sufficient, the bearish sentiment among industry players increased, and the price of butadiene rubber in the spot market continued to decline. As of May 29, the capacity utilization rate of Chinese semi - steel tire sample enterprises was 72.51%, a decrease of 1.23 percentage points month - on - month and 7.58 percentage points year - on - year; that of all - steel tire sample enterprises was 60.80%, a decrease of 1.29 percentage points month - on - month and 4.40 percentage points year - on - year. In May 2025, China's heavy - truck market sold about 83,000 vehicles, a 5% decrease from April and a 6% increase from the same period last year. From January to May, the cumulative sales were about 435,500 vehicles, a 1% increase year - on - year [2]