瑞达期货塑料产业日报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided Core View - The weak supply-demand pattern of LLDPE remains unchanged, but short-term price rebounds due to oil price fluctuations need attention. Technically, for L2509, support around 6890 and resistance around 7070 should be monitored. In June, the marginal reduction of PE maintenance losses is expected. With the restart of devices such as Yulin Chemical and Zhongsha Petrochemical, this week's output and capacity utilization are forecasted to increase month-on-month. Downstream demand is in the off - season, and the product start - up rate is expected to maintain a slight downward trend. The inventory pressure is not significant [2][3] Summary by Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - The closing price of the main polyethylene futures contract is 6963 yuan/ton, with a month - on - month increase of 3. The trading volume is 250,761 lots, a decrease of 60,471 lots, and the open interest is 565,965 lots, an increase of 17,361 lots. The spread between the January and May contracts is 1, with a month - on - month increase of 6. The long position, short position, and net long position of the top 20 futures holders are 427,172 lots, 518,600 lots, and - 91,428 lots respectively, with month - on - month changes of 12,434 lots, 14,066 lots, and - 1,632 lots [2] 现货市场 - The average price of LLDPE (7042) in North China is 7140.43 yuan/ton, a decrease of 3.04, and in East China is 7309.51 yuan/ton, a decrease of 10.49. The basis is 177.43, a decrease of 6.05 [2] Upstream Situation - The FOB mid - price of naphtha in Singapore is 60.83 US dollars/barrel, an increase of 0.66, and the CFR mid - price of naphtha in Japan is 561.63 US dollars/ton, an increase of 3.13. The CFR mid - price of ethylene in Southeast Asia is 851 US dollars/ton, unchanged, and in Northeast Asia is 781 US dollars/ton, unchanged [2] Industry Situation - The national start - up rate of PE in petrochemicals is 76.77%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points [2] Downstream Situation - The start - up rates of polyethylene (PE) for packaging film, pipes, and agricultural film are 48.59%, 31.5%, and 12.98% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.6, 0.5, and 1.07 percentage points [2] Option Market - The 20 - day and 40 - day historical volatilities of polyethylene are 15.22% and 18.78% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.18 and 0.23 percentage points. The implied volatilities of at - the - money put and call options for polyethylene are 13.36% and 13.39% respectively, with month - on - month decreases of 0.07 and 0.04 percentage points [2] Industry News - From May 23rd to 29th, China's polyethylene output was 588,900 tons, a decrease of 1.51% from the previous week, and the capacity utilization rate of polyethylene producers was 76.77%, a decrease of 1.18 percentage points from the previous period. The average start - up rate of downstream polyethylene products decreased by 0.09% from the previous period. As of May 30th, the social sample warehouse inventory of polyethylene was 582,700 tons, a decrease of 5.07% from the previous period. As of May 28th, the sample inventory of polyethylene producers was 482,000 tons, a decrease of 3.29% from the previous period [2]