瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250603

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not mentioned in the provided content 2. Core View of the Report - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the China-US tariff negotiations has basically been digested. The bond market is now driven by the capital and fundamental aspects. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation pattern. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and capital flow changes. Given the recent significant underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones, there may be no high - quality short - term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long - term bonds due to short - term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market Conditions - Futures Closing Prices and Volumes: T, TF, and TS main contracts closed down 0.03%, 0.04%, and 0.04% respectively, while the TL main contract closed up 0.03%. T, TF, and TL main contract volumes decreased by 19,601, 7,839, and 10,208 respectively, and the TS main contract volume increased by 2,847 [2] - Futures Spreads: Some spreads showed upward or downward trends, such as the TL2509 - 2506 spread increasing by 0.08 and the T2509 - 2506 spread decreasing by 0.01 [2] - Futures Positions: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract positions decreased by 2,657, 1,366, 2,271, and 611 respectively. The net short positions of T, TF, and TL decreased, while that of TS increased [2] 3.2 Bond Information - CTD Bond Net Prices: Some CTD bond net prices rose and some fell, for example, 240020.IB (4y) rose by 0.1243 and 250007.IB (6y) fell by 0.0644 [2] - Active Bond Yields: Yields of 1y, 3y, 5y, 7y, and 10y active bonds decreased by 2.00bp, 3.00bp, 1.75bp, 2.00bp, and 1.25bp respectively [2] 3.3 Interest Rates - Short - term Interest Rates: Silver - pledged overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 14.56bp, 17.00bp, and 13.00bp respectively. Shibor overnight, 7 - day, and 14 - day rates decreased by 6.10bp, 10.20bp, and 16.00bp respectively [2] - LPR Rates: 1y and 5y LPR rates remained unchanged [2] 3.4 Open Market Operations - The issuance scale of open - market operations was 454.5 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 830 billion yuan, and the net回笼 was 375.5 billion yuan at an interest rate of 1.4% for 7 days [2] 3.5 Industry News - In May, China's manufacturing PMI was 49.5%, up 0.5 percentage points from the previous month; non - manufacturing PMI was 50.3%, down 0.1 percentage point; and comprehensive PMI was 50.4%, up 0.2 percentage points [2] - The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the unreasonable accusation, urging the US to correct its wrong actions [2] - In May, the central bank conducted 700 billion yuan of outright reverse repurchase operations, with a net withdrawal of 200 billion yuan [2] 3.6 Key Data to Watch - June 4th, 20:15: US May ADP employment (in ten thousand people) - June 4th, 22:00: US May ISM non - manufacturing PMI - June 5th, 20:15: European Central Bank's interest rate decision - June 5th, 20:30: US initial jobless claims for the week ending May 31st (in ten thousand people) [3]