广发期货原木期货日报-20250603

Group 1: Report Overview - The report is the Log Futures Daily Report dated June 3, 2025 [1] Group 2: Investment Rating - No investment rating is provided in the report Group 3: Core View - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, and the current FOB price continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The arrival of goods at ports is expected to resume this week, and the current futures price is close to the phased bottom. Early short positions can consider partial stop - profit. Later, it is recommended to focus on shorting on rebounds or participating in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] Group 4: Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On May 30, the price of Log 2507 was 765.0 yuan/m³, down 1.0 yuan or - 0.13% from May 29; Log 2509 was 788.0 yuan/m³, down 1.0 yuan or - 0.13%; Log 2511 was 793.0 yuan/m³, up 0.5 yuan or 0.06%. The 7 - 9 spread was - 23.0 yuan/m³, unchanged; the 9 - 11 spread was - 5.0 yuan/m³, down 1.5 yuan; the 7 - 11 spread was - 28.0 yuan/m³, down 1.5 yuan. The 07 - contract basis was - 15.0 yuan/m³, up 1.0 yuan; the 09 - contract basis was - 38.0 yuan/m³, up 1.0 yuan; the 11 - contract basis was - 43.0 yuan/m³, down 0.5 yuan [2] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of logs at Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on May 30 compared to May 29. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 720.0 yuan/m³, with a 0.00% change [2] - Import cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate on May 30 was 7.190 yuan, down 0.01 yuan from May 29. The import theoretical cost was 778.21 yuan, down 1.00 yuan [2] Group 5: Supply - Monthly supply: In April, the port freight volume was 200.3 million m³, up 39.0 million m³ or 24.17% from March. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 66.0, up 8.0 or 13.79% from the previous period [2] Group 6: Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of May 23, the total inventory of coniferous logs in China was 343.00 million m³, up 2.0 million m³ or 0.59% from May 16. In Shandong, it was 192.00 million m³, up 1.11%; in Jiangsu, it was 109.96 million m³, down 1.70% [2][3] Group 7: Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: As of May 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.21 million m³, up 0.07 million m³ or 1% from the previous period. In Shandong, it was 3.20 million m³, unchanged; in Jiangsu, it was 2.29 million m³, up 3% [2][3]