原木期货日报-20250603

Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Core Viewpoints - After May, the demand for logs will enter the traditional off - season, and the shipment volume is expected to decrease in the next few weeks. Meanwhile, New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, and the current FOB quote continues to decline. The fundamental weak - balance pattern persists. The arrival of goods is expected to resume this week, and the current futures price is approaching the phased bottom. Previous short positions can consider partial stop - profit. It is recommended to focus on short - selling opportunities on rebounds or participate in the 7 - 9 reverse spread [3][4] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures and Spot Prices - Futures prices: On May 30, the price of log 2507 was 765.0 yuan/m³, down 1.0 yuan or - 0.13% from May 29; log 2509 was 788.0 yuan/m³, down 1.0 yuan or - 0.13%; log 2511 was 793.0 yuan/m³, up 0.5 yuan or 0.06%. The 7 - 9 spread remained unchanged at - 23.0, the 9 - 11 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 5.0, and the 7 - 11 spread decreased by 1.5 to - 28.0. The 07, 09, and 11 contract basis were - 15.0, - 38.0, and - 43.0 yuan/m³ respectively, with changes of 1.0, 1.0, and - 0.5 yuan [2] - Spot prices: The prices of various types of radiation pine and spruce at ports such as Rizhao Port and Taicang Port remained unchanged on May 30 compared to May 29. The FOB quotes for radiation pine 4 - meter medium A and spruce 11.8 - meter also remained unchanged [2] - Cost: On May 30, the RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.190 yuan, down 0.01 from May 29. The import theoretical cost was 778.21 yuan, down 1.00 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly supply: In April, the port freight volume was 200.3 million m³, up 39.0 million m³ or 24.17% from March. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 66.0, up 8.0 or 13.79% [2] Inventory - Weekly inventory of major ports: As of May 23, the total inventory in Chinese ports was 343.00 million m³, up 2.0 million m³ or 0.59% from May 16. In Shandong, it was 192.00 million m³, up 1.11%, and in Jiangsu, it was 109.96 million m³, down 1.70% [3] Demand - Weekly average daily outbound volume: As of May 23, the average daily outbound volume of logs in China was 6.21 million m³, up 0.07 million m³ or 1% from before. In Shandong, it was 3.20 million m³ with no change, and in Jiangsu, it was 2.29 million m³, up 0.07 million m³ or 3% [3]