花旗：石油监测-尽管欧佩克 + 即将增产，但在宏观因素和地缘政治支撑下，油价在前期下跌后仍获支撑

Investment Rating - The report indicates a supportive outlook for oil prices despite bearish factors, suggesting that the market may have priced in most of the negative influences [1][3] Core Insights - Oil prices have found support in the low $60s, influenced by geopolitical risks and low inventories, despite expectations of increased OPEC+ supply [1][2] - The ongoing geopolitical tensions, particularly the Russia-Ukraine conflict and US-Iran nuclear talks, are contributing to a bullish sentiment in the oil market [3][8] - The report highlights that while OPEC+ is unwinding output cuts, effective crude oil exports have only increased modestly, maintaining a tight market [6][8] Summary by Sections Macro Factors - The front-loading of goods manufacturing and exports to the US has positively impacted oil prices, with refining margins remaining healthy [2] - OPEC+ has not significantly increased exports despite earlier announcements, leading to a perception that the oil market may remain tighter than expected [2] Geopolitical Factors - The Russia-Ukraine conflict remains unresolved, with potential for additional sanctions affecting oil and gas flows from Russia [3] - The US-Iran nuclear negotiations are progressing slowly, with a potential deal that could influence oil prices significantly [3] Supply and Inventory Dynamics - OPEC+ has reaffirmed its output cuts, but actual compliance has been lower than expected, with visible liquid inventories remaining low [6][8] - US commercial crude oil inventories fell by 2.8 million barrels, significantly more than expected, indicating a tighter supply situation [15][26] - Global oil product inventories rose by 5.1 million barrels, but light end inventories decreased, reflecting mixed supply dynamics [18][19] Demand Trends - US gasoline demand has shown resilience despite macroeconomic concerns, with implied demand rising due to seasonal driving patterns [26] - Fleetwide fuel efficiency has improved, which could impact overall gasoline consumption trends moving forward [10][26]