摩根士丹利：贸易不确定性与移民确定性

Investment Rating - The report maintains a neutral outlook on the economy, with no changes to the baseline outlook despite recent court rulings affecting tariffs [8][12]. Core Insights - Trade policy remains uncertain due to the recent ruling against IEEPA-based tariffs, but the administration may still recreate its tariff structure under different legal authorities [10][11]. - Immigration estimates have been revised down, projecting 800,000 for this year and 500,000 for next year, which will contribute to slower population and labor force growth [21][22]. - Potential growth is expected to decline to 2.0% this year and possibly 1.5% next year, influenced by low immigration and its effects on labor market dynamics [8][31]. Summary by Sections Trade Policy - The US Court of International Trade ruled against IEEPA-based tariffs, creating uncertainty in trade policy, but the administration may utilize other legislative authorities to maintain tariff structures [9][10]. - The effective tariff rate could decrease if IEEPA tariffs are removed, impacting duties collected in fiscal year 2025 [13][14]. Immigration and Labor Market - Immigration is projected to slow, with a revised outlook of 800,000 this year and 500,000 next year, leading to tighter labor market conditions despite slower employment growth [21][22]. - The breakeven employment rate has been adjusted down to 90,000 for 2025, indicating that lower immigration will make it harder to push the unemployment rate higher [27][29]. Economic Growth - The potential growth rate has returned to pre-pandemic averages around 2.0%, with expectations of further decline due to immigration restrictions [31][32]. - The neutral interest rate is estimated to be lower, around 80 basis points, reflecting slower potential growth and the implications for future monetary policy [32][33]. GDP and Spending - Recent data indicates a cooling economy, with Q1 GDP growth revised to -0.2% and personal consumption growth revised down to 1.2% [15][16][17]. - The labor market shows signs of moderation, with initial jobless claims remaining stable but continuing claims reaching the highest post-pandemic level [18][19].