摩根士丹利：2025 年美国消费者手册-当下需知要点

Investment Rating - The report does not explicitly provide an investment rating for the industry Core Insights - The report highlights the potential impacts of the recent tax bill on various consumer cohorts, indicating a relatively neutral effect on aggregate consumer income and spending, with low-income consumers likely facing negative impacts due to cuts in transfer payments, while high-income consumers may benefit from tax cuts [3][13][15] Key Consumer Forecasts - Real consumption growth is projected to slow from 3.1% in 2024 to 0.9% in 2025 and further to 0.7% in 2026 [7][8] - Nominal personal consumption expenditures are expected to decrease from 5.7% in 2024 to 3.9% in 2025 and 2.9% in 2026 [8] Fiscal Factors Affecting Consumers - The tax bill is expected to have a neutral impact on consumer income and spending at the aggregate level, with tax cuts offset by spending cuts to programs like SNAP and Medicaid [11][13] - The estimated cost of tax policy changes is projected to be $282 billion over one year and $2,047 billion over ten years [12] Labor Market & Income - Payroll growth is expected to average 98,000 in 2025, down from 168,000 in 2024, with the unemployment rate projected to rise slightly to 4.3% [41][41] - Real disposable personal income growth is expected to slow to 1.3% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 [64] Consumption & Sentiment - Consumer sentiment has deteriorated, with spending intentions turning negative across most categories, particularly in discretionary spending [72][75] - Inflation remains a top concern for consumers, with a net 17% expecting the economy to worsen over the next six months [75] Credit & Balance Sheet - The report indicates a decline in credit card loan growth from 7.5% in 2024 to 4.8% in 2025, with net charge-off rates expected to rise [8]