汇丰：全球货运监测-集装箱和航空货运保持积极势头

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating on Maersk and Evergreen Marine, a "Hold" rating on COSCO Shipping (both A and H shares), Hapag Lloyd, and OOIL in containers, and a "Buy" rating on COSCO Shipping Energy (both A and H shares) [8][9]. Core Insights - Positive momentum is observed in container and air freight sectors, with significant rate hikes expected to support profitability in the near term [4][5]. - Tariff-driven front loading to the US is anticipated to continue, while air cargo rates may see a near-term spike due to increased demand [4][5]. - The SCFI (Shanghai Containerized Freight Index) surged by 31% week-on-week, with rates to the US increasing by 46-58% and to Europe by 21% [4][45]. Summary by Sections Tariffs and Trade - Tariff headwinds are expected to persist despite court interventions, leading to continued front loading as uncertainty remains regarding future policy [2]. - The resumption of shipping routes through the Red Sea is not imminent due to ongoing conflicts, with major carriers opting for alternative routes [3]. Freight Rates and Market Trends - Upcoming rate hikes are likely to be effective, with general rate increases announced for transpacific and Asia-Europe routes [4][20]. - Air cargo rates are projected to rise further in the coming weeks, driven by front loadings, although medium-term demand may shift towards sea freight for low-value goods [5]. Container Shipping Insights - The SCFI's significant increase reflects a surge in bookings from China to the US, with rates to the US West Coast and East Coast up by 58% and 46% respectively [45]. - The report highlights a trend of reactivating transpacific services post-tariff pause, indicating a recovery in shipping activity [22]. Stock Recommendations - Specific stock recommendations include "Buy" on Maersk and Evergreen Marine, and "Hold" on COSCO Shipping (both A and H shares), Hapag Lloyd, and OOIL in containers [9].