大越期货尿素早报-20250604

Group 1: Report Investment Rating - No investment rating information provided Group 2: Core Viewpoints - The overall fundamentals of urea are bearish, with the futures price expected to fluctuate weakly today. The high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, and weak short - term agricultural demand contribute to this outlook. After the export policy was implemented, the price declined [4]. - The main logic is the high daily production on the supply side and marginal changes in demand. The main risk factor is the change in export policy [5]. Group 3: Summary by Related Catalogs Urea Overview - Fundamentals: The urea futures price has recently declined. Supply shows high operating rates and daily production, with new plants coming into operation and short - term inventory fluctuations. On the demand side, the operating rate of compound fertilizers in industrial demand has declined, the operating rate of melamine is relatively high, and agricultural demand is short - term weak. The international urea price is strong. After the export policy was implemented on May 15 - 16, the dual - track price system results in high export profits but has little impact on domestic prices. The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10) [4]. - Basis: The basis of the UR2509 contract is 76, with a premium/discount ratio of 4.1%, which is bullish [4]. - Inventory: The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), which is bearish [4]. - Futures: The 20 - day moving average of the UR main contract is upward, but the closing price is below the 20 - day line, showing a neutral trend [4]. - Main positions: The net position of the UR main contract is short, indicating a bearish signal [4]. - Expectation: The futures price of the urea main contract has declined. With high daily production, short - term inventory fluctuations, weak short - term agricultural demand, and price decline after the export policy implementation, the UR is expected to fluctuate weakly today [4]. - Leverage factors: Bullish factor is the strong overseas price; bearish factors include high operating rates and daily production, new plant commissioning, and overall weak demand [5]. Spot and Futures Market | Category | Details | | --- | --- | | Spot | The spot price of the delivery product is 1850 (-10), Shandong spot is 1870 (0), Henan spot is 1850 (0), and FOB China is 2588 [4][6]. | | Futures | The prices of UR01, UR05, and UR09 are 1703 (0), 1717 (0), and 1773 (0) respectively. The basis of the UR2509 contract is 77 (0) [6]. | | Inventory | The UR comprehensive inventory is 1.114 million tons (+0), including 981,000 tons of factory inventory and 133,000 tons of port inventory, and the number of warehouse receipts is 6854 (+0) [4][6]. | Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - From 2018 - 2024, urea production capacity, output, and apparent consumption generally showed an upward trend. The import dependence decreased from 18.6% in 2018 to 9.5% in 2024. The consumption growth rate fluctuated, with the highest being 17.9% in 2020 and the lowest being 0.3% in 2022. In 2025E, the production capacity is expected to reach 49.06 million tons, with a growth rate of 11.0% [10].