沪镍、不锈钢早报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The Shanghai nickel 2507 contract is expected to move in a weak and volatile manner, with support from the cost line below [2]. - The stainless steel 2507 contract is also expected to move in a weak and volatile manner [4]. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Nickel Market - Fundamentals: The external nickel price fluctuates between the 5 - day and 20 - day moving averages. Last week, the nickel price continued to be weak. Rumors of increased quotas in Indonesia on Wednesday caused a rapid decline, but the cost line provided support, and downstream low - price transactions improved. The ore - end quotes remain firm, but downstream iron plants are in a loss situation with a production cut expectation, and stainless steel warehouse receipts continue to flow out. However, the good production and sales data of new energy vehicles are beneficial for nickel demand. The medium - to - long - term oversupply pattern remains unchanged [2]. - Basis: The spot price of nickel is 122,850, and the basis is 1,600, indicating a bullish signal [2]. - Inventory: LME nickel inventory is 201,462 (an increase of 1,152), and the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel warehouse receipts are 22,038 (a decrease of 19), showing a bearish signal [2]. - Market Trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [2]. - Main Position: The main position is net short, and the short position is decreasing [2]. - Price Changes: From May 30th to June 3rd, the Shanghai nickel main contract price increased from 120,480 to 121,250; the LME nickel price decreased from 15,510 to 15,475; the SMM1 electrolytic nickel price increased from 122,325 to 122,850; the 1 Jinchuan nickel price increased from 123,525 to 124,050; the 1 imported nickel price increased from 121,175 to 121,800; and the nickel bean price increased from 120,475 to 121,050 [10]. - Inventory Changes: As of May 30th, the Shanghai Futures Exchange nickel inventory was 27,075 tons, with the futures inventory at 22,057 tons (an increase of 120 tons in total inventory and a decrease of 361 tons in futures inventory). From May 30th to June 3rd, the LME nickel inventory increased from 199,380 to 201,462, the Shanghai nickel warehouse receipts decreased from 22,057 to 22,038, and the total inventory increased from 221,437 to 223,500 [12][13]. Stainless Steel Market - Fundamentals: The spot stainless steel price has declined. There is an expectation of a short - term correction in nickel ore prices, and the cost line may loosen. The nickel - iron price is weakly stable, and the stainless steel exchange warehouse receipts continue to flow into the spot market [4]. - Basis: The average stainless steel price is 13,787.5, and the basis is 1,157.5, indicating a bullish signal [4]. - Inventory: The stainless steel futures warehouse receipts are 129,690 (a decrease of 300), showing a bearish signal [4]. - Market Trend: The closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, and the 20 - day moving average is downward, suggesting a bearish trend [4]. - Price Changes: From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel main contract price decreased from 12,690 to 12,630; the cold - rolled stainless steel index in Wuxi decreased from 12,510 to 12,460; the cold - rolled 304*2B stainless steel price in Foshan decreased from 13,950 to 13,850, while prices in other regions remained unchanged [10]. - Inventory Changes: On May 30th, the inventory in Wuxi was 58,360 tons, in Foshan was 351,100 tons, and the national inventory was 1,099,600 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 18,100 tons). The 300 - series inventory was 669,100 tons (a month - on - month decrease of 23,900 tons). From May 30th to June 3rd, the stainless steel warehouse receipts decreased from 129,990 to 129,690 [18][19]. Nickel Ore and Nickel - Iron Prices - The price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni1.5% remained at 58.5 US dollars per wet ton; the price of red soil nickel ore CIF with Ni0.9% remained at 31 US dollars per wet ton. The sea freight from the Philippines to Lianyungang and Tianjin Port remained unchanged. The price of high - nickel wet ton (8 - 12) increased from 954 to 955 yuan per nickel point, and the price of low - nickel wet ton (below 2) remained at 3,450 yuan per ton [22]. Stainless Steel Production Cost - The traditional production cost is 13,202 yuan, the scrap - steel production cost is 13,590 yuan, and the low - nickel + pure - nickel production cost is 16,737 yuan [24]. Nickel Import Cost - The calculated nickel import price is 125,901 yuan per ton [27].