大越期货豆粕早报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - For Soybean Meal: The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term. The price of soybean meal M2509 is expected to fluctuate between 2920 and 2980. The market focuses on the impact of US soybean planting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [8]. - For Soybeans: The domestic soybean market is also affected by multiple factors and is expected to fluctuate in the range of 4060 - 4160 for soybean A2507. The market focuses on the impact of South American soybean harvesting weather and Sino - US trade tariff games [10]. Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - Not provided in the report 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement of Sino - US tariff negotiation is positive for US soybeans, but the good planting weather in the US has led to a short - term pull - back of the US soybean market. It is expected to oscillate above the 1000 - point mark, waiting for further guidance on US soybean planting, imported soybean arrivals, and the follow - up of Sino - US tariff negotiation [12]. - The arrival volume of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May. After May Day, the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level, but the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean market returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war, showing a pattern of strong reality and weak expectation [12]. - The reduction of domestic pig - breeding profit has led to a low expectation of pig restocking. The demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day, but the tight supply supports the post - festival price expectation. With the weakening pressure of the Sino - US tariff war, the soybean meal market has entered a short - term oscillating and weakening pattern [12]. - The low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal and the strong spot price support the short - term price expectation. The possibility of weather speculation in the US soybean - producing areas and the variable impact of the Sino - US tariff war make the soybean meal market oscillate in the short term, waiting for the clarification of South American soybean production and further guidance on the follow - up of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. 3. Long and Short Concerns - Soybean Meal: Bullish factors include slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of domestic oil - mill soybean meal, and variable weather in the US soybean - producing areas. Bearish factors include the increase in the total arrival volume of imported soybeans in June and the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of South American soybeans [13]. - Soybeans: Bullish factors include the cost support of imported soybeans for the domestic soybean market and the expected increase in domestic soybean demand. Bearish factors include the continuous expectation of a bumper harvest of Brazilian soybeans and the increase in domestic procurement of Brazilian soybeans, as well as the expected increase in new - season domestic soybeans [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal and Rapeseed Meal Transaction Data: From May 22 to June 3, the transaction prices and volumes of soybean meal and rapeseed meal fluctuated, and the price difference between soybean meal and rapeseed meal continued to narrow [15]. - Soybean and Meal Futures and Spot Prices: From May 23 to June 3, the futures and spot prices of soybeans and soybean meal showed different trends. The futures price of soybean meal was relatively strong and oscillating, while the spot price was relatively weak after May Day, and the discount widened slightly [17][22]. - Soybean and Meal Warehouse Receipt Statistics: From May 21 to June 3, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 1 decreased, the warehouse receipts of soybean No. 2 decreased to zero, and the warehouse receipts of soybean meal also decreased [19]. - Global and Domestic Soybean Supply - Demand Balance Sheets: The global and domestic soybean supply - demand balance sheets from 2015 to 2024 show the changes in harvest area, inventory, production, consumption, etc. [31][32]. 5. Position Data - Not provided in the report Other Market Information - The weekly export inspection of US soybeans decreased both on a month - on - month and year - on - year basis [42]. - The inventory of soybeans in oil mills continued to rise, while the inventory of soybean meal remained low [44]. - The unexecuted contracts of oil mills continued to rise, indicating an increase in long - term stocking demand [46]. - The soybean crushing volume of oil mills rebounded to a high level, but the output of soybean meal in April decreased year - on - year [24][48]. - The import cost of Brazilian soybeans fluctuated slightly, and the import soybean futures spread narrowed slightly [50]. - The inventory of pigs and sows increased slightly year - on - year but decreased slightly month - on - month [52]. - The prices of pigs and piglets fluctuated slightly [54]. - The proportion of large pigs in China decreased, and the cost of secondary fattening of pigs increased slightly [56]. - The domestic pig - breeding profit increased slightly [58].