大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The short - term commodity market is greatly affected by the macro - level, and there is still an expectation of raw material inventory accumulation. After the market rebounds, attention should be paid to the upper resistance level [10]. - The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with an expected inventory reduction of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, which supports price rebounds [8]. - The EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) has imposed taxes on polyester products since 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. Enterprises need to accelerate the layout of production capacity in Southeast Asia. The average domestic polyester operating rate is 85%, with some small and medium - sized enterprises below 70%. Low - end overcapacity has led to fierce price competition, and the inventory days of filaments and staple fibers are approaching historical highs [9]. Summary by Directory 1.前日回顾 - Not provided in the given content 2.每日提示 PTA - Fundamentals: PTA futures fluctuated and declined yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis declined. The negotiation was mainly among traders, with individual polyester factories making bids. The main port in mid - and late June was traded at 09 + 200 - 210, and the price negotiation range was around 4,830 - 5,000. The warehouse receipts this week were traded at 09 + 220. Today's mainstream spot basis is 09 + 207 [5]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,905, the basis of the 09 contract is 277, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [5]. - Inventory: The PTA factory inventory is 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period, which is bullish [5]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [5]. - Main positions: The net long positions are decreasing, which is bullish [5]. - Expectation: Last week, PTA device maintenance and restart were concurrent. The supply - demand pattern of PTA itself is acceptable. After continuous inventory reduction in the early stage, the current spot market liquidity is tight, and the spot basis is running strongly. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production and load. It is expected that the PTA spot price will fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short term, and the spot basis will remain strong. Attention should be paid to the impact of the OPEC + meeting results on oil prices and changes in polyester devices [5]. MEG - Fundamentals: On Tuesday, the price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly, and the market negotiation was average. Today, the explicit inventory of ethylene glycol decreased significantly, basically in line with market expectations. In the morning, the price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly, and the buying sentiment in the market was average. In the afternoon, the spot basis weakened significantly, and the low - end transactions at the end of the session reached around 138 - 140 yuan/ton, with an increase in low - end trading volume. In terms of US dollars, the external price center of ethylene glycol declined weakly. In the afternoon, the negotiation center of recent shipments fell to around 520 - 521 US dollars/ton, and the negotiation for shipments in late June and early July was at 516 - 518 US dollars/ton, with weak market negotiation [7]. - Basis: The spot price is 4,478, the basis of the 09 contract is 172, and the futures price is at a discount, which is bullish [7]. - Inventory: The total inventory in East China is 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period, which is bullish [7]. - Market trend: The 20 - day moving average is upward, and the closing price is below the 20 - day moving average, which is bullish [7]. - Main positions: The main net short positions are decreasing, which is bearish [7]. - Expectation: Last week, the shipping efficiency of ethylene glycol ports was acceptable. Combined with the small number of foreign arrivals during the week, it is expected that the port inventory will decrease significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival. The inventory of mainstream trading tanks in Zhangjiagang is likely to fall below 200,000 tons. The tradable spot of ethylene glycol in June is still in short supply, and the spot basis will mainly maintain a strong operation. In the future, attention should be paid to the outflow of warehouse receipts. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium and short term, which supports the price of ethylene glycol. In the future, attention should be paid to changes in polyester load [7]. 3.今日关注 - Not provided in the given content 4.基本面数据 PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the PTA production capacity, production capacity increment, load, output, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester load, polyester output, PTA consumption by polyester, other PTA demand, PTA export, total PTA demand, demand year - on - year change, PTA ending inventory, inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [11]. Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet - It shows the total ethylene glycol operating rate, total production, new production capacity, production, import, total supply, supply year - on - year change, polyester production capacity, new polyester production capacity, polyester operating rate, polyester output, ethylene glycol consumption by polyester, other ethylene glycol consumption, ethylene glycol export, total ethylene glycol demand, demand year - on - year change, ethylene glycol port inventory, port inventory change, inventory - consumption ratio, and supply - demand gap from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. Other Data Presented - Price - related data: Include bottle - chip spot price, bottle - chip production profit, bottle - chip capacity utilization rate, bottle - chip inventory, PTA basis, MEG month - to - month spread, MEG basis, spot spread, etc., with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [13][14][27] - Inventory - related data: Include PTA factory inventory, MEG port inventory, PET slice factory inventory, polyester fiber inventory in Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines, etc., with data sources from Wind [40][41][45] - Operating rate - related data: Include the operating rates of PTA, p - xylene, ethylene glycol in the polyester upstream, and the operating rates of polyester factories and Jiangsu and Zhejiang weaving machines in the polyester downstream, with data sources from Wind [51][55] - Profit - related data: Include PTA processing fees, MEG production profits from different production methods, and production profits of polyester fibers, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [59][62][65]