大越期货沥青期货早报-20250604

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply pressure of asphalt is expected to decrease as refineries have recently reduced production. The overall demand is lower than the historical average, and the recovery is weak. The inventory is continuously decreasing, and the cost support is strengthening in the short - term due to the rising crude oil prices. It is expected that the asphalt 2509 contract will fluctuate narrowly in the range of 3455 - 3509 [8][9]. - The bullish factors include relatively high crude oil costs providing some support, while the bearish factors are the insufficient demand for high - priced goods and the overall downward demand with an increasing expectation of an economic recession in Europe and the United States [11][12]. - The main logic is that the supply pressure remains high, and the demand recovery is weak [13]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Views - Supply: In May 2025, the domestic total planned asphalt production was 2.318 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 1.3%. This week, the sample capacity utilization rate of domestic petroleum asphalt was 28.6433%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.06 percentage points. The sample enterprise output was 478,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 9.64%. The estimated device maintenance volume of sample enterprises was 764,000 tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.79%. Refineries have reduced production to ease supply pressure [8]. - Demand: The heavy - traffic asphalt开工率 was 27.7%, a month - on - month decrease of 0.10 percentage points; the construction asphalt开工率 was 18.2%, unchanged month - on - month; the modified asphalt开工率 was 14.047%, a month - on - month increase of 1.72 percentage points; the road - modified asphalt开工率 was 26%, a month - on - month decrease; the waterproofing membrane开工率 was 33%, a month - on - month decrease of 3.80 percentage points. Overall, the current demand is lower than the historical average [8]. - Cost: The daily asphalt processing profit was - 437.12 yuan/ton, a month - on - month decrease of 10.00%. The weekly delayed coking profit of Shandong local refineries was 701.2414 yuan/ton, a month - on - month increase of 20.49%. The asphalt processing loss decreased, and the profit difference between asphalt and delayed coking increased. The rising crude oil is expected to support the price in the short - term [8]. - Basis: On June 3, the Shandong spot price was 3670 yuan/ton, and the basis of the 09 contract was 214 yuan/ton, with the spot at a premium to the futures [8]. - Inventory: The social inventory was 1.355 million tons, a month - on - month increase of 0.67%; the in - plant inventory was 814,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 1.45%; the port diluted asphalt inventory was 150,000 tons, a month - on - month decrease of 11.76%. The social inventory continued to accumulate, while the in - plant and port inventories continued to decline [8]. - Disk: The MA20 was upward, and the futures price of the 09 contract closed below the MA20, showing a neutral trend [9]. - Main Position: The main position was net long, with an increase in long positions [9]. 3.2 Asphalt Market Overview - The report provides detailed data on the prices, price changes, and inventory changes of different asphalt contracts, including the 01 - 12 contracts, as well as information on weekly inventory, weekly output, weekly maintenance volume, weekly shipment volume, and downstream demand开工率 [16]. 3.3 Asphalt Futures Market - Basis and Spread Analysis - Basis Trend: It shows the historical basis trends of Shandong and East China asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [18][19]. - Spread Analysis: - Main Contract Spread: It presents the historical spread trends of the 1 - 6 and 6 - 12 contracts of asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [21][22]. - Asphalt - Crude Oil Price Trend: It shows the historical price trends of asphalt, Brent oil, and West Texas oil from 2020 - 2025 [24][25]. - Crude Oil Crack Spread: It shows the historical crack spreads of asphalt and different types of crude oil (SC, WTI, Brent) from 2020 - 2025 [27][28][29]. - Asphalt, Crude Oil, and Fuel Oil Price Ratio Trend: It shows the historical price ratio trends of asphalt, crude oil, and fuel oil from 2020 - 2025 [31][32]. 3.4 Asphalt Spot Market - Regional Market Price Trends - It shows the historical average price trends of heavy - traffic asphalt in the East China and Shandong regions from 2020 - 2025 [35][36]. 3.5 Asphalt Fundamental Analysis - Profit Analysis: - Asphalt Profit: It shows the historical profit trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [38][39]. - Coking - Asphalt Profit Spread Trend: It shows the historical profit spread trends between coking and asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [41][42][43]. - Supply - Side Analysis: - Shipment Volume: It shows the historical weekly shipment volumes of small - sample asphalt enterprises from 2020 - 2025 [44][45]. - Diluted Asphalt Port Inventory: It shows the historical domestic diluted asphalt port inventories from 2021 - 2025 [46][47]. - Output: It shows the historical weekly and monthly output trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [49][50]. - Marine Crude Oil Price and Venezuelan Crude Oil Monthly Output Trend: It shows the historical price trends of Marine crude oil and the monthly output trends of Venezuelan crude oil from 2018 - 2025 [53][55]. - Local Refinery Asphalt Output: It shows the historical output trends of local refinery asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [56][57]. - 开工率: It shows the historical weekly开工率 trends of asphalt from 2023 - 2025 [59][60]. - Maintenance Loss Estimation: It shows the historical maintenance loss estimation trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [62][63]. - Inventory Analysis: - Exchange Warehouse Receipt: It shows the historical exchange warehouse receipt trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [65][66][67]. - Social and In - Plant Inventory: It shows the historical social and in - plant inventory trends of asphalt from 2022 - 2025 [70][71]. - In - Plant Inventory Inventory Ratio: It shows the historical in - plant inventory inventory ratio trends of asphalt from 2018 - 2025 [73][74]. - Import and Export Situation: - It shows the historical export and import trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025, as well as the historical import spread trend of South Korean asphalt from 2020 - 2025 [76][77][80]. - Demand - Side Analysis: - Petroleum Coke Output: It shows the historical output trends of petroleum coke from 2019 - 2025 [82][83]. - Apparent Consumption: It shows the historical apparent consumption trends of asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [85][86]. - Downstream Demand: - It shows the historical trends of highway construction traffic fixed - asset investment, new local special bonds, and infrastructure investment completion year - on - year from 2019 - 2025 [88][89][90]. - It shows the historical trends of asphalt concrete paver sales, excavator monthly working hours, domestic excavator sales, and roller sales from 2019 - 2025 [92][93][95]. - Asphalt开工率: - Heavy - Traffic Asphalt开工率: It shows the historical开工率 trends of heavy - traffic asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [97][98]. - Asphalt开工率 by Use: It shows the historical开工率 trends of construction asphalt and modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [100][101]. - Downstream开工率: It shows the historical开工率 trends of shoe - material SBS - modified asphalt, road - modified asphalt, and waterproofing membrane - modified asphalt from 2019 - 2025 [103][104][106]. - Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It provides the monthly asphalt supply - demand balance sheets from January 2024 to May 2025, including data on monthly output, import, export, social inventory, in - plant inventory, diluted asphalt port inventory, and downstream demand [108][109].