Report Information - Report Date: June 4, 2025 [2] - Report Type: Monthly Report - Report Focus: Industrial Silicon and Polysilicon in the Photovoltaic Industry Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the report Core Views - Industrial silicon's fundamentals are difficult to improve, and the price will accelerate to fall and reach the bottom in June [4][7] - Polysilicon has entered a policy vacuum period, and the spot price will continue to be under pressure in June, with the futures price remaining weak [4][8] Summary by Directory Industrial Silicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - In May, industrial silicon futures and spot prices entered an accelerated downward trend. By May 30, the main - continuous contract closed at 7,160 yuan/ton, with a monthly decline of 9.54%. Spot prices also fell significantly [21] - In June, due to the macro - policy observation period, the decline of the commodity index, and the lack of supply - side reduction and demand growth, the price will accelerate to explore the bottom, and the improvement of fundamentals will lag behind the price [7][23][24] 2. Supply Side - In 2024, industrial silicon production increased rapidly, and there is still new production capacity expected to be put into operation in 2025. In April 2025, the effective production capacity was 748,200 tons, with a monthly increase of 1.34% and a year - on - year increase of 7.83% [27] - The current supply - side reduction is less than expected. To reach the supply - demand balance, the weekly output should drop to 63,200 tons, but in May, the monthly output remained above 308,500 tons. The southwest region faces the pressure of resuming production, and the output of the three northern regions continues to increase [29][30][32] 3. Demand - Organic silicon enterprises have reached a consensus on production reduction to support prices, and the demand for industrial silicon in June is expected to be about 100,000 tons [46][47] - The change in polysilicon production is relatively limited, and the monthly demand for industrial silicon will remain below 110,000 tons [49] - The export of industrial silicon has ended the "rush - export" situation, and the export volume and price are both declining [53] 4. Inventory - The total industrial silicon inventory is 737,165 tons, with the inventory/consumption ratio increasing to 2.38. The futures inventory has been continuously cancelled, while the现货 inventory is still increasing [54][55] Polysilicon 1. Market Review and Outlook - In May, the price of the polysilicon futures main contract was weak. The "rush - installation" in the photovoltaic industry has ended, and the supply - side needs to expand production reduction to achieve effective inventory reduction [60][61] - In June, after the "rush - installation" ends, the weak downstream demand will be transmitted upstream. The spot price will continue to test the cost support, and the futures price will remain weak [8][63] 2. Inventory - As of May 30, polysilicon, silicon wafers, and battery cells have all entered a rapid inventory accumulation stage, and the inventory reduction is still difficult [65] 3. Terminal Demand - The photovoltaic "rush - installation" has ended. The new photovoltaic installation volume is expected to decline in June, and the overseas demand is relatively stable. The supply - demand contradiction will gradually ease [67] 4. Supply Side - The new production capacity of polysilicon is difficult to be realized. The annual demand growth is limited, and the supply - side needs to further increase production reduction to achieve supply - demand balance [77][79][81]
光伏月报:工业硅:基本面改善困难,加速下跌探底多晶硅:政策真空期,硅料再度进入弱势局面-20250604
Jian Xin Qi Huo·2025-06-04 03:21