Report Summary 1. Investment Rating The report does not provide an overall industry investment rating. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall financial and commodity futures markets are affected by multiple factors such as trade policies, economic data, and supply - demand fundamentals, showing different trends and outlooks in various sectors. For example, in the stock index futures market, the index is affected by news and has short - term fluctuations; in the bond market, the short - term trend of treasury bond interest rates is expected to be "bounded above and below"; in the precious metals market, gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations [2][7][11]. 3. Summary by Directory Financial Derivatives - Financial Futures - Stock Index Futures: On Tuesday, the A - share market opened lower and then strengthened. Consumption stocks became popular, while high - dividend stocks declined. The four major stock index futures contracts rose, and the basis discount of the main contracts converged. It is recommended to wait and see, and try to go long on the CSI 1000 index in the 5800 - 5900 range [2][3][5]. - Treasury Bond Futures: The funds were balanced and loose, and the treasury bond futures fluctuated narrowly. It is expected that the short - term treasury bond interest rates will fluctuate within a certain range. It is recommended to conduct interval band operations, pay attention to the positive arbitrage strategy of the TS2509 contract, and there may be opportunities to steepen the curve [6][7][8]. - Precious Metals: After the "black swan" event overseas during the Dragon Boat Festival, the market returned to rationality, and precious metals declined. Gold has long - term support but short - term fluctuations. It is recommended to sell out - of - the - money gold options to earn time value when volatility rises [9][11][12]. - Container Shipping Index (European Line): The July quotation of CMA opened higher, and the futures market rebounded after bottom - hunting. The overall attitude is cautiously bullish, and it is recommended to go long on the main contract at low prices [13][14]. Commodity Futures - Non - ferrous Metals - Copper: The weak driving force continues, and the "strong reality" may not last. The short - term price is expected to fluctuate, and it is recommended to pay attention to the pressure level of 78000 - 79000 [14][17][19]. - Zinc: The supply increase is less than expected, which supports the price. It is recommended to pay attention to inventory changes. The short - term view is oscillatory, and the main contract reference range is 21500 - 23500 [19][20][22]. - Tin: There is an expectation of supply restoration, and the tin price continues to decline. It is recommended to hold short positions [22][23][24]. - Nickel: The market is calm, and the fundamentals change little. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 118000 - 126000 [24][26][27]. - Stainless Steel: The market is weak, and there are still contradictions between supply and demand. The short - term is expected to fluctuate weakly, and the main contract reference range is 12600 - 13200 [28][30][31]. - Lithium Carbonate: The market is weakly stable, and the fundamental logic has not changed. The short - term is expected to be weak, and the main contract reference range is 56000 - 60000 [31][32][34]. - Black Metals - Steel: The apparent demand has peaked, and the cost has decreased, leading to a significant decline in steel prices. It is recommended to operate with a short - bias [35][37][38]. - Iron Ore: The molten iron output has declined, and the price is expected to fluctuate. The reference range is 700 - 745 [39][41]. - Coke: The second round of price cuts by mainstream steel mills has been implemented, and there may be further cuts. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coke [42][44]. - Coking Coal: The market auction is weak, and the price may continue to decline. It is recommended to stop profiting on short positions of the 2509 contract and consider the strategy of going long on iron ore and short on coking coal [44][46]. - Silicon Iron: Large factories in Ningxia have resumed production, and the cost may still decline. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [47][49]. - Manganese Silicon: The shipment from Groote Eylandt has resumed, and the supply pressure still exists. The price is expected to fluctuate weakly [50][52][53]. - Agricultural Products - Meal Products: CBOT is weak again, and the two meals are oscillating. The two meals are expected to maintain an oscillatory structure, and the main contract of soybean meal is expected to fluctuate in the range of 2900 - 3000 [54][56]. - Pigs: After the festival, the demand is weak, and the spot price is under pressure. The market lacks upward drive, and it is necessary to pay attention to the support at around 13500 [57][58][59]. - Corn: Affected by the weak wheat price, corn opened high and closed low. In the short term, it will maintain an interval oscillation, and it is necessary to pay attention to the wheat market and policy releases [60][61].
广发早知道：汇总版-20250604
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-04 03:42