永安期货原油成品油早报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and slightly stronger pattern, with the Brent monthly spread stronger than the Dubai market. The short - term high refinery profits are expected to lead to an increase in refinery operations. The leading indicators of US shale oil are declining, and the US - Iran negotiation is at a stalemate [5]. - Medium - to - long - term: Crude oil is in a bearish pattern due to OPEC supply policies and supply - demand surplus [5]. 3. Summary by Relevant Contents 3.1 Price Data - International Crude Oil: From May 27 to June 3, WTI increased by $2.62 to $63.41, BRENT increased by $2.85 to $65.63, and DUBAI increased by $1.16 to $64.89 [3]. - Domestic Oil Products: From May 27 to June 3, domestic gasoline increased by 50 yuan to 7710 yuan, and domestic diesel increased by 63 yuan to 6639 yuan [3]. - Other Oil - Related Products: From May 27 to June 3, Japan naphtha CFR decreased by $9.59, Singapore fuel oil 380CST decreased by $10, and HH natural gas decreased by $0.16 [3][12]. 3.2 News and Events - US - Iran Negotiation: The US proposed allowing Iran to conduct low - level uranium enrichment, but Iranian officials said the proposal was "incoherent and disjointed", and the next round of talks' time is uncertain. Iran will respond in a few days [3][4]. - OPEC Production: OPEC's crude oil production in May increased by 200,000 barrels per day to 27.54 million barrels per day [4]. - US API Inventory: The US API crude oil inventory for the week ending May 30 was - 3.3 million barrels, exceeding the expected - 0.9 million barrels [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - US EIA Report: In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day; domestic crude oil production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day; commercial crude oil inventory decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a decrease of 0.63%; strategic petroleum reserve inventory increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, an increase of 0.2% [4][5]. - China's Oil Market: This week, the operating rate of major refineries decreased, while that of Shandong local refineries increased. The production of gasoline and diesel in China both increased. Gasoline and diesel inventories decreased significantly. The comprehensive profit of major refineries rebounded, and that of local refineries improved [5]. 3.4 Market Analysis - Supply: US shale oil drilling rig numbers continue to decline. OPEC increased production by 411,000 barrels per day as expected in July, and Iran's production increased in April. The internal production compliance rate of OPEC + increased in April [5]. - Demand: Global refinery profits declined slightly but are still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. The summer travel season has begun, and the demand for gasoline and jet fuel has increased [5].