消费行业2025年中期展望：新常态下的新趋势带来新的机遇

Investment Rating - The report indicates a positive outlook for the consumer industry, particularly favoring optional consumption sectors over essential consumption sectors due to emerging trends and opportunities [1][23]. Core Insights - The consumer environment has shown signs of recovery in the first half of 2025, driven by policy stimuli and a rebound in consumer confidence, despite challenges in the external environment [3][7]. - New retail companies like Pop Mart, Lao Pu Gold, and Mixue Ice City have emerged as significant growth drivers, outperforming traditional consumption sectors in terms of revenue and stock performance [16][23]. - The report highlights that the new consumption trends are reshaping the market, with a focus on low-tier markets, value-for-money products, and emotional consumption [23][24]. Summary by Sections 1H25 Review: Overall Improvement in Consumer Environment - The consumer confidence index has rebounded slightly in 2025, supported by government policies aimed at boosting consumption and domestic demand [7][10]. - The retail sales growth rate for social consumer goods improved, reaching over 5% in March-April 2025 compared to the second half of 2024 [11][12]. 2H25 Outlook: New Trends Bring New Opportunities - The macro environment remains uncertain, but supply-side reforms are expected to restore balance in supply and demand across various consumer sub-sectors [23][24]. - The report emphasizes that optional consumption sectors are likely to adapt better to new consumer trends, presenting growth opportunities [23][24]. Key Consumer Trends - Low-tier markets are becoming competitive battlegrounds, with rising consumer confidence and demand for quality products [23][24]. - Traditional consumption sectors are focusing on cost-effectiveness due to a more rational consumer mindset [23][24]. - There is a growing demand for self-gratifying and emotional consumption, requiring companies to resonate emotionally with consumers [23][24]. - Inventory levels in the industry are expected to stabilize, improving the promotional environment for major consumer goods companies [23][24]. - Despite trade tensions, Chinese consumer companies are increasingly looking to expand overseas, leveraging established supply chains and brand recognition [23][24].