瑞达期货沪铅产业日报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The overall supply of Shanghai lead has declined, which provides some support for prices. However, the price of Shanghai lead continues to decline under the influence of weakening demand. Although the inventory has decreased, the overseas inventory remains high, putting significant pressure on lead prices. Attention should be paid to the new impacts brought by changes in tariff policies. Technically, it is currently in a triangular consolidation structure, with a slight rebound today. Short - term long positions can be considered, while medium - to long - term short positions are recommended on rallies [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the Shanghai lead main contract is 16,670 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan; the LME 3 - month lead quotation is 1,981 dollars/ton, up 17 dollars. The 07 - 08 month contract spread of Shanghai lead is 0 yuan/ton, down 10 yuan. The Shanghai lead open interest is 90,698 lots, up 4,827 lots. The net position of the top 20 in Shanghai lead is 1,338 lots, up 236 lots. The Shanghai lead warehouse receipts are 40,316 tons, up 897 tons. The SHFE inventory is 46,500 tons, down 1,928 tons; the LME lead inventory is 284,150 tons, down 2,025 tons [2]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of 1 lead in Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network is 16,425 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan; the spot price of 1 lead in Yangtze River Non - ferrous Metals Market is 16,580 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The basis of the lead main contract is - 245 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan. The LME lead premium (0 - 3) is - 22.17 dollars/ton, up 2.09 dollars. The price of lead concentrate (50% - 60%) in Jiyuan is 15,704 yuan, down 241 yuan. The price of domestic recycled lead (≥98.5%) is 16,420 yuan/ton, down 20 yuan. The WBMS supply - demand balance of lead is - 18,700 tons, up 7,100 tons. The number of recycled lead production enterprises is 68, unchanged. The capacity utilization rate of recycled lead is 51.28%, down 3.13 percentage points. The monthly output of recycled lead is 224,200 tons, down 67,500 tons [2]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The average operating rate of primary lead is 70.57%, down 3.31 percentage points; the weekly output of primary lead is 33,900 tons, down 400 tons. The processing fee of lead concentrate (60%) at major ports is - 30 dollars/kiloton, down 10 dollars. The ILZSG lead supply - demand balance is 16,400 tons, up 48,800 tons. The global lead ore output is 399,700 tons, down 3,700 tons. The monthly import volume of lead ore is 119,700 tons, up 24,800 tons [2]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly import volume of refined lead is 815.37 tons, down 1,021.76 tons; the monthly export volume of refined lead is 2,109.62 tons, up 223.33 tons. The average market price of waste batteries is 9,946.43 yuan/ton, down 23.21 yuan [2]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly export volume of batteries is 41.45 million units, down 425,000 units. The average price of lead - antimony alloy (for batteries, 2% antimony content) is 20,175 yuan/ton, unchanged. The Shenwan industry index of batteries and other cells is 1,655.35 points, down 1.98 points. The monthly automobile output is 2.604 million vehicles, down 440,600 vehicles. The monthly new - energy vehicle output is 1.647 million vehicles, up 73,000 vehicles [2]. 3.6 Industry News - Tariff News: The Trump administration raised the steel and aluminum tariffs to 50%, effective on the 4th. The US put forward a "long and demanding" requirement list to Vietnam in tariff negotiations. The EU did not receive a letter from the US asking for the "best trade offer". The Brazilian president said that if an agreement on tariffs with the US cannot be reached, Brazil will resort to the WTO or take reciprocal measures. The India - EU free trade agreement is accelerating, and nearly half of the issues have reached a consensus [2]. - Fed News: Logan said to focus on achieving the 2% inflation target instead of trying to make up for past inflation shortfalls. Bostic still thinks there may be one interest - rate cut this year [2]. - US Economic Data: The number of job openings in the US unexpectedly increased in April, and the monthly rate of factory orders in April recorded the largest decline since January 2024. The US Bureau of Labor Statistics will revise the April employment report on Friday, and most indicators such as the unemployment rate are not affected [2].