瑞达期货贵金属产业日报-20250604

Report Summary 1) Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2) Core Viewpoint The gold price maintains a high - level volatile pattern supported by risk - aversion sentiment dominated by tariffs. Although the US dollar strengthens slightly in the short - term and exerts pressure on the gold price, the gold's safe - haven property is continuously boosted by geopolitical risks. Silver also maintains a strong trend due to the rise in the gold price and the expectation of the Fed's interest rate cut, and the gold - silver ratio is expected to decline periodically. In the long - term, the US debt problem may lead to a long - lasting global de - dollarization trend, which is structurally beneficial to the gold price, and the long - term bullish logic for gold remains unchanged, with a short - term tendency to be volatile and bullish [2]. 3) Summary by Relevant Catalogs a) Market Data - Futures Market: The closing price of the Shanghai gold main contract is 782.42 yuan/gram, down 0.68; the closing price of the Shanghai silver main contract is 8463 yuan/kilogram, up 7. The main contract positions of Shanghai gold decreased by 523 to 180310 hands, while those of Shanghai silver increased by 9481 to 379627 hands. The net positions of the top 20 in the Shanghai gold main contract increased by 4044 to 129913 hands, and those of Shanghai silver decreased by 2228 to 142476 hands. The gold warehouse receipt quantity remained unchanged at 17247 kilograms, and the silver warehouse receipt quantity increased by 18364 to 1087210 kilograms [2]. - Spot Market: The Shanghai Non - ferrous Metals Network gold spot price is 781.4 yuan/gram, up 0.1; the silver spot price is 8454 yuan/kilogram, up 29. The basis of the Shanghai gold main contract is - 1.02 yuan/gram, up 0.78; the basis of the Shanghai silver main contract is - 9 yuan/kilogram, up 22 [2]. - Supply and Demand: Gold ETF holdings increased by 2.57 tons to 935.64 tons, and silver ETF holdings increased by 64.83 tons to 14416.65 tons. The non - commercial net positions of gold in CFTC increased by 10203 to 174184 contracts, and those of silver increased by 2970 to 53012 contracts. The total quarterly supply and demand of gold are both 1313.01 tons, up 54.84 and 54.83 respectively. The total annual supply of silver is 987.8 million ounces, down 21.4; the total annual global demand is 1195 million ounces, down 47.4 [2]. - Option Market: The 20 - day historical volatility of gold is 22.57%, up 0.36; the 40 - day historical volatility is 27.14%, down 0.12. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for gold is 23.69%, up 0.56 and 0.55 respectively [2]. b) Industry News - Trump announced to raise the tariffs on imported steel, aluminum and their derivatives from 25% to 50% starting from 00:01 on June 4, 2025, except for those from the UK which remain at 25% [2] - With five weeks left until the tariff restoration on July 8, the Trump administration urged countries to submit the best trade negotiation plans before June 4, bringing new uncertainties to the global market [2] - The OECD lowered the economic growth forecasts of the US and the world. The US growth rate in 2025 is reduced from 2.2% to 1.6%, and is expected to be 1.5% in 2026 [2] c) Macroeconomic Data - US April durable goods orders decreased by 6.3% month - on - month, in line with expectations; factory orders in April decreased by 3.7% month - on - month, slightly below expectations [2] - US April JOLTS job openings were 7.391 million, higher than the expected 7.1 million [2] - The US May ISM manufacturing PMI hit a new low since November 2024, remaining in the contraction range for months [2]