瑞达期货多晶硅产业日报-20250604

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints - The polysilicon market price is temporarily stable, but the demand side is under great pressure. The supply side has all manufacturers operating at reduced loads, and the production enthusiasm is frustrated. The demand side is relatively weak, with the downstream photovoltaic module production schedule being adjusted down, the silicon wafer enterprise self - discipline quota being reduced, and the terminal market showing strong wait - and - see sentiment. The polysilicon inventory is at a high level, suppressing the market price. Long - term operations should still focus on short - selling [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Futures Market - The closing price of the main contract of polysilicon is 35,055 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 695 yuan/ton; the main position volume is 67,873 lots, with a week - on - week decrease of 3,727 lots. The price difference between the June - July contracts is 1,940 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 145 yuan/ton; the price difference between polysilicon and industrial silicon is 27,775 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 485 yuan/ton [3]. 3.2 Spot Market - The spot price of polysilicon is 36,500 yuan/ton, unchanged; the average price of cauliflower - type polysilicon is 29 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of dense - type polysilicon is 31.5 yuan/kg, unchanged; the average price of re - feeding polysilicon is 32.5 yuan/kg, unchanged. The weekly average price of photovoltaic - grade polysilicon is 4.28 US dollars/kg, with a week - on - week decrease of 0.01 US dollars/kg [3]. 3.3 Upstream Situation - The closing price of the main contract of industrial silicon is 7,280 yuan/ton, with a week - on - week increase of 210 yuan/ton; the spot price is 8,300 yuan/ton, unchanged. The monthly export volume of industrial silicon is 52,919.65 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 12,197.89 tons; the monthly import volume is 2,211.36 tons, with a month - on - month increase of 71.51 tons. The monthly output of industrial silicon is 299,700 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 36,050 tons; the total social inventory is 582,000 tons, with a week - on - week decrease of 17,000 tons [3]. 3.4 Industry Situation - The monthly output of polysilicon is 96,000 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,000 tons; the monthly import volume is 954 tons, with a month - on - month decrease of 1,952 tons. The weekly spot price of imported polysilicon in China is 5.01 US dollars/kg, unchanged; the monthly average import price is 2.19 US dollars/ton, with a month - on - month decrease of 0.14 US dollars/ton [3]. 3.5 Downstream Situation - The monthly output of solar cells is 71,928,000 kilowatts, with a month - on - month decrease of 6,516,000 kilowatts. The average price of solar cells is 0.82 RMB/W, with a week - on - week increase of 0.01 RMB/W. The monthly export volume of photovoltaic modules is 83,789,320 pieces, with a month - on - month decrease of 11,583,800 pieces; the monthly import volume is 20,120,440 pieces, with a month - on - month increase of 10,274,320 pieces; the monthly average import price is 0.29 US dollars/piece, with a month - on - month increase of 0.02 US dollars/piece. The comprehensive price index of the photovoltaic industry (SPI) for polysilicon is 22.29, unchanged [3]. 3.6 Industry News - As of June 4, the mainstream market prices of P - type cauliflower - type polysilicon, N - type dense - type polysilicon, N - type re - feeding polysilicon, N - type granular silicon, and N - type polysilicon are all stable. The National Federation of Industry and Commerce Automobile Dealers Chamber of Commerce has initiated an initiative to resist "involution - style" competition in the form of "price war". In the polysilicon market, the supply side is operating at reduced loads, and the demand side is weak [3].