瑞达期货国债期货日报-20250604

Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content Core Viewpoints - The negative impact on the bond market caused by the unexpected outcome of the Sino-US tariff negotiations has been largely digested. The bond market is now driven by the money supply and economic fundamentals. In the short term, there are no clear positive or negative factors, so the bond market is expected to continue its volatile consolidation. Attention should be paid to subsequent high-frequency economic data and changes in the money supply. Given the recent underperformance of short-term bond futures compared to long-term ones and the significant market divergence, there may be no good short-term trading opportunities, and the risk of a correction in long-term bond prices due to short-term spread adjustments should be watched out for [2] Summary by Related Catalogs Futures Market - Closing Prices and Volume Changes: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract closing prices increased by 0.09%, 0.07%, 0.04%, and 0.1% respectively. T and TL main contract trading volumes increased by 12,841 and 9,425 respectively, while TF and TS main contract trading volumes decreased by 1,213 and 6,072 respectively [2] - Price Spreads: The spreads of TL2509 - 2506, T2509 - 2506, TF2509 - 2506, and TS2509 - 2506 all increased by 0.02, while T06 - TL06, TS06 - T06, TS06 - TF06 spreads decreased by 0.04, and TF06 - T06 spread remained unchanged [2] - Open Interest: T, TF, TS, and TL main contract open interests decreased by 225, 1,564, 339, and 2 respectively. T and TL top 20 long positions increased by 3,788 and 1,637 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 long positions decreased by 358 and 1,040 respectively. T and TL top 20 short positions increased by 1,978 and 852 respectively, while TF top 20 short positions increased by 3,052 and TS top 20 short positions decreased by 1,025. T and TL top 20 net short positions decreased by 1,810 and 785 respectively, while TF and TS top 20 net short positions increased by 3,410 and 15 respectively [2] CTD Bonds - The net prices of several CTD bonds, such as 2500802.IB, 220010.IB, 240020.IB, etc., all showed an upward trend [2] Active Treasury Bonds - Yields of 1 - 7Y active treasury bonds increased by 0.75 - 1.00bp, and the 10Y yield increased by 0.10bp [2] Short - term Interest Rates - Silver - pledged overnight and Shibor overnight rates decreased by 1.37bp and 0.20bp respectively, while silver - pledged 7 - day, Shibor 7 - day, and silver - pledged 14 - day rates changed by 1.00bp, 2.80bp, and 1.00bp respectively [2] LPR Rates - 1 - year and 5 - year LPR rates remained unchanged [2] Open Market Operations - The issuance scale was 214.9 billion yuan, the maturity scale was 215.5 billion yuan, and the interest rate was 1.4% for 7 - day reverse repurchase operations, resulting in a net withdrawal of 600 million yuan [2] Industry News - The Caixin China Manufacturing PMI was 48.3, down 2.1 percentage points from the previous month, falling below the boom - bust line for the first time in eight months. The production index and new order index reached their lowest levels since December 2022 and October 2022 respectively. The US raised tariffs on imported steel, aluminum, and their derivatives from 25% to 50%. The US accused China of violating the consensus of the Geneva economic and trade talks, and China firmly rejected the groundless accusation [2] Key Data to Follow - On June 5th at 20:15, the ECB will announce its interest rate decision. At 20:30, the number of initial jobless claims in the US for the week ending May 31st will be released. On June 6th at 20:30, the US unemployment rate and seasonally - adjusted non - farm payrolls for May will be announced [3]