瑞达期货玉米系产业日报-20250604

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No information provided Group 2: Report Core View - For corn, the US corn sowing progress and good rate are favorable, and Sino-US trade relations have eased, but there is long - term import pressure. In the domestic market, purchasing enthusiasm in the Northeast is average, and trading activities are light. In the North China and Huanghuai regions, the rise in wheat forage use affects the corn market. Corn futures prices continue to fluctuate, and short - term participation is recommended [2][3] - For corn starch, affected by high raw material costs, large industry losses, and competition from substitutes, the industry's operating rate continues to decline. Although supply pressure has weakened and spot prices are relatively firm, downstream demand is limited, and inventory remains high. Corn starch futures prices also fluctuate, and short - term participation is recommended [3] Group 3: Summary According to Relevant Catalogs Futures Market - Corn futures closing price (active contract) is 2333 yuan/ton, and corn starch is 2664 yuan/ton. The corn monthly spread (9 - 1) is 115 yuan/ton, and the corn starch monthly spread (7 - 9) is - 69 yuan/ton. Futures positions and other indicators show various changes [2] Outer Market - CBOT corn futures closing price is 438.25 cents/bushel. The total CBOT corn position is 1654814 contracts, and the non - commercial net long position is - 20333 contracts [2] Spot Market - The average spot price of corn is 2384.12 yuan/ton, and the average price of wheat is 2439.17 yuan/ton. The factory - quoted prices of corn starch in different regions vary, and the import price of corn is 1975.97 yuan/ton [2] Upstream Situation - The predicted annual corn production in the US is 377.63 million tons, in Brazil is 126 million tons, in Argentina is 50 million tons, in China is 294.92 million tons, and in Ukraine is 26.8 million tons. The sowing areas in each country are also provided [2] Industrial Situation - Corn inventories in southern and northern ports are 136.7 and 484 million tons respectively. The monthly import volume of corn is 18 million tons, and the monthly export volume of corn starch is 23720 tons [2] Downstream Situation - The monthly output of feed is 2777.2 million tons, and the processing profits of corn starch in different regions are negative. The alcohol and starch enterprise operating rates are 44.91% and 51.78% respectively [2] Options Market - The 20 - day historical volatility of corn is 6.72%, and the 60 - day historical volatility is 7.63%. The implied volatility of at - the - money call and put options for corn is 11.25% [2] Industry News - As of June 1, the US corn sowing progress is 93%, and the good rate is 69%. The predicted second - season corn output in Brazil in the 2024/25 season is 106.1 million tons [2] Key Points of Attention - Pay attention to the weekly corn consumption and the operating and inventory conditions of starch enterprises on Thursday and Friday [3]