花旗：解读美国电力公用事业资本支出增长_对亚洲电网设备制造商的影响

Investment Rating - The report assigns a "Buy" rating for NextEra Energy Inc (NEE) with a target price of $84 based on a 24x P/E multiple on the 2024 consolidated EPS estimate [32][39]. Core Insights - The US utility capex is projected to grow at a CAGR of approximately 5% from 2016 to 2024, with electric transmission and distribution being the primary growth drivers [4][8]. - The historical transmission growth rate from 2017 to 2023 was 5.4%, and it is projected to accelerate to 8.2% from 2024 to 2027 due to increasing power demand [8][12]. - The report highlights a robust increase in data center and advanced manufacturing activities as key drivers of load growth in the US [13][17]. Summary by Sections Historical Utility Capex Trends - US utility capex grew approximately 5% per year from 2016 to 2024, with electric transmission and distribution leading the growth [4][5]. Capex Forecast - NextEra's utility segment (FPL) is estimated to have T&D capex making up 15-20% of total capex, with a stable outlook through 2028 [25][31]. - PSE&G's T&D spend is projected to be around 50% of total capex throughout its planning period, indicating a stable capex outlook [31][26]. Drivers of Load Growth - The report forecasts global data center IT load growth at a CAGR of 14% to 110 GW by 2030, with Gen-AI workloads expected to account for nearly 60% of demand for data center power by that year [17][18]. Regulatory and Political Factors - NextEra's capex is uncertain beyond 2028 due to potential changes from the "Big Beautiful Bill," which may affect renewables capex [23][25]. - The report notes that affordability is a significant concern in New Jersey, with customer bills expected to spike approximately 17% in July [31][22].