建信期货油脂日报-20250605

Report Information - Reported industry: Oil and fat [1] - Date: June 5, 2025 [2] - Researcher: Yulanlan, Lin Zhenlei, Wang Haifeng, Hong Chenliang, Liu Youran [3] Report Core View - Rapeseed oil is greatly affected by news related to China-Canada relations. The Canadian Prime Minister's statement has intensified market bearish sentiment, and rapeseed oil futures led the decline in the entire oil market. It is recommended to underweight. In the long term, the situation of far-month ship purchases still needs to be observed [7] - The market expects that the inventory of Malaysian palm oil at the end of May will increase significantly, exceeding 2 million tons for the first time this year. The significant increase in inventory restrains the upward movement of the futures price, but strong exports support the price, and it continues to trade in a range [7] - The abundant soybean supply in Brazil continues to put pressure on the market. Attention should be paid to the recent soybean imports and crushing situation. An improvement in the supply situation may bring pressure to soybean oils [7] Summary by Directory 1. Market Review and Operation Suggestions - Dongguan rapeseed oil trader quotes: Dongguan triple-pressed rapeseed oil 09+50 (June), first-pressed rapeseed oil 09+250 (June). East China market soybean oil basis prices: first-grade soybean oil: 09+280 in early June, 09+260 from June to July; 09+270 from June to September, 01+330 from October to January. East China 24-degree palm oil: P09+450 yuan/ton [7] - Rapeseed oil was affected by China-Canada relations, with futures leading the decline in the oil market. It is recommended to underweight, and long-term attention should be paid to far-month ship purchases. The expected significant increase in Malaysian palm oil inventory in late May restrains price increases, but strong exports support prices, maintaining a range-bound trend. The abundant soybean supply in Brazil exerts pressure, and attention should be paid to imports and crushing [7] 2. Industry News - According to SPPOMA data, Malaysia's palm oil production in May increased by 3.53% month-on-month, with the fresh fruit bunch (FFB) yield increasing by 1.9% month-on-month and the oil extraction rate (OER) increasing by 0.3% month-on-month [8] - According to SGS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,069,643 tons, a 29.6% increase from April. Exports to China were 131,900 tons, an increase of 62,700 tons from the previous month [8] - According to ITS data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,320,914 tons, a 17.9% increase from April [8] - According to AmSpec data, Malaysia's palm oil exports in May were 1,230,787 tons, a 13.2% increase from April [8] 3. Data Overview - The report presents multiple charts, including spot prices and basis changes of rapeseed oil, soybean oil, and palm oil in different regions, as well as price spreads and exchange rates, with data sources from Wind and the Research and Development Department of Jianxin Futures [10][12][15]