大越期货天胶早报-20250605

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content Group 2: Core Viewpoints of the Report - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, foreign spot prices are strong, domestic inventories are rising, and tire operating rates are at a high level. The overall situation is neutral. The basis is negative, the inventory situation is mixed, the market is bearish on the disk and in terms of main positions, and short - term trading is dominated by market sentiment [6] - There are both positive and negative factors in the market. Positive factors include the gradual recovery of the domestic economy, high downstream consumption, and strong raw material prices. Negative factors include increased supply, increased market inventory, and a bearish external environment [8] Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Daily Prompt - The supply of natural rubber is increasing, the foreign spot is strong, the domestic inventory is increasing, and the tire operating rate is at a high level. The overall is neutral. The basis is - 255 with a spot price of 13400, showing a bearish sign. The exchange inventory has little change recently, and the inventory in Qingdao area is increasing [6] 2. Fundamental Data - Supply and Demand: Supply is increasing, downstream consumption has high - level performance with seasonal fluctuations (automobile production and sales are seasonally falling, but tire production is at a record high for the same period and tire industry exports are falling) [6][25][31] - Price: The spot price of 23 - year full - latex (non - deliverable) fell on June 3. The US dollar quotation in Qingdao Free Trade Zone is also involved [10] - Inventory: The exchange inventory has little change recently, while the inventory in Qingdao area is increasing both week - on - week and year - on - year [6][16][19] 3. Multi - empty Factors and Main Risk Points - Positive Factors: The domestic economy is gradually recovering, downstream consumption is at a high level, and raw material prices are strong [8] - Negative Factors: Supply is increasing, market inventory is increasing, and the external environment is bearish [8] 4. Basis - The basis became a spot discount on June 3 [37]