大越期货PTA、MEG早报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating - Not provided in the given content. 2. Core Views of the Report - PTA: The PTA futures fluctuated and closed lower yesterday. The spot market negotiation atmosphere was average, and the spot basis weakened. The PTA supply - demand pattern is acceptable, and the spot market liquidity is tight after continuous destocking. However, downstream polyester factories are reducing production, so the PTA spot price is expected to fluctuate within a range following the cost side in the short - term, and the spot basis will remain strong [5]. - MEG: The price center of ethylene glycol adjusted weakly on Wednesday. The market negotiation was acceptable. The spot basis weakened in the morning and then recovered in the afternoon. It is expected that the port inventory will decline significantly after the Dragon Boat Festival, and the available spot in June will still be tight. The supply - demand structure of ethylene glycol is benign in the medium - and short - term, which will support the price [7]. - Influencing factors: The maintenance season of raw materials such as PTA and ethylene glycol has led to supply contraction, with a destocking expectation of over 500,000 tons in the second quarter, supporting price rebounds. However, the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) will levy taxes on polyester products starting in 2025, increasing export costs by 8% - 12%. The domestic polyester average operating rate is 85%, and some small and medium - sized enterprises are below 70%, with over - capacity of low - end products leading to intense price competition and high inventory levels for filaments and staple fibers [9][10]. 3. Summary According to the Table of Contents 3.1 Previous Day's Review - Not provided in the given content. 3.2 Daily Tips - PTA: The spot price was 4,870, the basis of the 09 contract was 200, and the futures was at a discount. The PTA factory inventory was 4.09 days, a decrease of 0.06 days compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net long, with long positions decreasing [5]. - MEG: The spot price was 4,415, the basis of the 09 contract was 123, and the futures was at a discount. The total inventory in the East China region was 573,700 tons, a decrease of 66,500 tons compared to the previous period. The 20 - day moving average was upward, but the closing price was below the 20 - day moving average. The main position was net short, with short positions increasing [7][8]. 3.3 Today's Focus - Not provided in the given content. 3.4 Fundamental Data - PTA Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It shows the data of PTA production capacity, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [12]. - Ethylene Glycol Supply - Demand Balance Sheet: It presents the data of ethylene glycol's total operating rate, production, import, supply, polyester production, consumption, and port inventory from January 2024 to December 2025 [13]. 3.5 Price - It includes the spot price of bottle chips, production profit, capacity utilization, inventory, PTA basis, MEG basis, and various spread data from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind, Mysteel, and CCF [15][18][22][23][28][35]. 3.6 Inventory Analysis - It shows the inventory data of PTA, MEG, PET slices, and various types of polyester fibers from 2020 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [41]. 3.7 Polyester Upstream Start - up - It includes the start - up rate data of PTA, p - xylene, and ethylene glycol from 2020 to 2025 [52]. 3.8 Polyester Downstream Start - up - It presents the start - up rate data of polyester factories and Jiangsu - Zhejiang looms from 2020 to 2025 [56]. 3.9 Processing Fees and Profits - PTA Processing Fees: It shows the PTA processing fee data from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [60]. - MEG Profits: It includes the production profit data of different production methods of ethylene glycol (methanol - based, coal - based, naphtha - integrated, and ethylene - based) from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind and Mysteel [63]. - Polyester Fiber Profits: It shows the production profit data of polyester fiber short - staple, DTY, POY, and FDY from 2022 to 2025, with data sources from Wind [66].