大越期货豆粕早报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The soybean meal market is expected to return to a range - bound pattern in the short term, with the M2509 contract oscillating between 2920 and 2980. The market is affected by factors such as the weather in US soybean - growing areas, the arrival of imported Brazilian soybeans, and Sino - US tariff negotiations [8]. - The soybean market is also expected to be range - bound. The A2507 contract is expected to oscillate between 4060 and 4160, influenced by factors like South American soybean harvest weather, Sino - US trade tariff games, and domestic supply and demand situations [10]. Summary According to the Table of Contents 1. Daily Hints No relevant content provided. 2. Recent News - The short - term agreement on Sino - US tariff negotiations is beneficial for US soybeans, but good weather in US soybean - growing areas has caused the US soybean futures to rise and then fall, with expectations of oscillation above the 1000 - point mark [12]. - The arrival of imported soybeans in China reached a high in May, and the domestic soybean inventory rebounded from a low level after May Day, while the soybean meal inventory remained low. The soybean and soybean meal markets have returned to an oscillating pattern due to the impact of the Sino - US tariff war [12]. - Reduced profits in the domestic pig - breeding industry have led to low expectations for pig replenishment, and the demand for soybean meal has weakened after May Day. However, tight supply supports the post - holiday price expectations of soybean meal, and the market has entered an oscillating and weakening pattern in the short term [12]. - The low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills and strong spot prices support short - term price expectations. Uncertainties such as potential weather speculation in US soybean - growing areas and Sino - US tariff war variables have kept the soybean meal market oscillating in the short term [12]. 3. Bullish and Bearish Factors of Concern Soybean Meal - Bullish factors: Slow customs clearance of imported soybeans, low inventory of soybean meal in domestic oil mills, and uncertain weather in US soybean - growing areas [13]. - Bearish factors: The total arrival of imported soybeans in China will reach a high in June, and the expected high yield of South American soybeans persists [13]. Soybeans - Bullish factors: Cost of imported soybeans supports the bottom of the domestic soybean futures, and the expected increase in domestic demand for domestic soybeans supports price expectations [14]. - Bearish factors: The expected high yield of Brazilian soybeans and increased purchases of Brazilian soybeans by China, as well as the expected increase in domestic soybean production, suppress price expectations [14]. 4. Fundamental Data - Soybean Meal: The spot price in East China is 2780, with a basis of - 159, indicating a discount to the futures. The inventory of soybean meal in oil mills is 29.8 tons, a 44.03% increase from last week and a 65.19% decrease compared to the same period last year [8]. - Soybeans: The spot price is 4160, with a basis of 37, indicating a premium to the futures. The inventory of soybeans in oil mills is 582.88 tons, a 3.97% increase from last week and a 20.45% increase compared to the same period last year [10]. 5. Position Data - Soybean Meal: The long positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed in [8]. - Soybeans: The short positions of the main contract have increased, and funds have flowed out [10].