贵金属早报-20250605

Group 1: Report Industry Investment Rating - No relevant content provided Group 2: Core Views of the Report - The weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data have led to an increase in expectations of interest rate cuts, causing gold prices to fluctuate upwards. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today still support gold prices. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram. Gold prices will fluctuate today, and investors should pay attention to the ECB's interest rate decision [4]. - Due to the weak US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data and the increasing expectations of interest rate cuts, silver prices are fluctuating. The failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible further interest rate cuts by the ECB today also support silver prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg. Silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices [6]. Group 3: Summary by Directory 1. Previous Day's Review - The US ISM Services PMI and ADP employment data were weak, increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. The three major US stock indexes closed mixed, European stocks rose for the second consecutive day, the US dollar index fell 0.47% to 98.81, the offshore RMB appreciated significantly to 7.1717, US Treasury yields fell collectively, with the 10 - year Treasury yield dropping 9.85 basis points to 4.355%, and COMEX gold futures rose 0.60% to $3397.40 per ounce [4]. - For silver, the same weak economic data led to increasing expectations of interest rate cuts. COMEX silver futures rose 0.06% to $34.66 per ounce [6]. 2. Daily Tips - Gold: The basis is - 3.02, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the gold futures warehouse receipts are 17,247 kilograms, unchanged (bearish); the 20 - day moving average is downward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (neutral); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [5]. - Silver: The basis is - 28, with the spot at a discount to the futures (neutral); the Shanghai silver futures warehouse receipts are 1,087,210 kilograms, increasing by 18,364 kilograms day - on - day (neutral); the 20 - day moving average is upward, and the K - line is above the 20 - day moving average (bullish); the main net position is long, and the main long position has increased (bullish) [6]. 3. Today's Focus - Today, investors should pay attention to China's May Caixin PMI, the ECB's interest rate decision and the governor's speech, the US April trade balance, and speeches by Fed and BoE officials. The weak US economic data has increased expectations of interest rate cuts, and the failure of the US - Iran negotiations and the possible ECB interest rate cuts support gold prices. Gold prices will fluctuate [4]. - Specific events to watch include South Korea's Q1 GDP final value at 07:00, Australia's April goods and services trade balance at 09:30, China's May Caixin Services and Composite PMI at 09:45, the ECB's policy interest rate release at 20:15, etc. [15]. 4. Fundamental Data - Gold: The fundamental situation is neutral. The weak economic data and increasing interest rate cut expectations have an impact on gold prices, but other factors also need to be considered. The premium of Shanghai gold has converged to around 3.4 yuan/gram [4]. - Silver: The fundamental situation is also affected by the weak economic data and interest rate cut expectations, and silver prices will follow the fluctuations of gold prices. The premium of Shanghai silver has expanded to around 496 yuan/kg [6]. 5. Position Data - Gold: The main net position is long, and the main long position has increased. The long position of the top 20 in Shanghai gold increased by 3.77% to 203,268 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 5.08% to 72,216, and the net position increased by 3.06% to 131,052 [5][30]. - Silver: The main net position is long, but the long position of the top 20 in Shanghai silver decreased by 0.16% to 470,538 on June 4, 2025, the short position increased by 1.04% to 336,044, and the net position decreased by 3.04% to 134,494 [6][33].