大越期货甲醇早报-20250605

1. Report Industry Investment Rating No information provided. 2. Core Viewpoints of the Report - The methanol market showed a trend of first falling and then stabilizing. Inland methanol prices stopped falling and stabilized in the second half - week due to factors such as increased willingness of traders to hold goods and short - covering demand after prices hit a one - year low. Port prices also showed a similar trend, with the futures market supported by the news of the suspension of the US tariff policy [5]. - It is expected that the methanol price will fluctuate this week, with the MA2509 contract oscillating between 2250 - 2320 yuan/ton [5]. 3. Summary According to the Directory 3.1 Daily Tips - For the methanol 2509 contract, the fundamental situation is neutral; the basis shows that the spot in Jiangsu is at a premium to the futures, which is bullish; the inventory situation is bullish; the disk situation is neutral; the main position is net short with a reduction in short positions, which is bearish [5]. 3.2 Multi - and Short - term Concerns - Bullish factors: Some domestic devices such as Yulin Kaiyue and Xinjiang Xinya are shut down; the methanol production start - up rate in Iran has decreased; the port inventory is at a low level; a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Jingmen has produced products, and a 600,000 - ton/year acetic acid device in Xinjiang Zhonghe Hezhong is planned to be put into production this month; CTO plants in the northwest are purchasing methanol externally [6]. - Bearish factors: Some previously shut - down domestic devices such as Inner Mongolia Donghua have resumed operation; there is expected to be a concentrated arrival of ships at ports in the second half of the month; the formaldehyde industry has entered the traditional off - season; the MTBE start - up rate has dropped significantly; coal - to - methanol has a certain profit margin and is actively selling goods; some factories in the production areas have accumulated inventory due to poor sales [7]. 3.3 Fundamental Data - Price data: In the spot market, the price of thermal coal in the Bohai Rim and Jiangsu has decreased, while the price of methanol in some regions such as Hebei, Fujian, and Inner Mongolia has increased. In the futures market, the closing price of the main contract has increased, and the number of registered warrants and effective forecasts has also changed. The basis, import spread, and other spreads have also shown corresponding changes [8]. - Start - up rate data: The start - up rates in Shandong, Southwest, and Northwest regions have decreased, while the start - up rate in the East China region remains unchanged. The national weighted average start - up rate has decreased [8]. - Inventory data: The total social inventory of methanol in the East and South China ports has increased slightly, while the overall available circulating supply in coastal areas has decreased [5]. 3.4 Maintenance Status - Domestic device maintenance: Multiple domestic methanol production enterprises in different regions such as Northwest, North China, East China, Southwest, and Northeast are in a state of maintenance, including planned maintenance, unplanned maintenance, and maintenance due to device failures [56]. - Foreign device operation: Some Iranian methanol devices are in the process of resuming operation, while devices in other countries such as Saudi Arabia, Malaysia, and the United States are generally operating normally, with some devices having just completed maintenance or having low start - up rates [57]. - Olefin device operation: Some domestic olefin devices using methanol as raw material are operating stably, while some are in a state of shutdown or have low loads, and some new projects are planned to be put into production [58].