大越期货原油早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core Viewpoints - Overnight crude oil first rose and then fell. EIA crude oil inventory drawdown exceeded expectations, providing support for the market. However, inventory build - up in downstream gasoline and refined oil products limited the upside potential of crude oil. Saudi Aramco's price cut for its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July indicated that oil - producing countries were starting to compete for market share. With the supply side continuing to increase production, crude oil faced significant upward pressure. Geopolitical conditions deteriorated, but Russia - Ukraine and US - Iran still considered continuing negotiations, resulting in insufficient short - term bullish stimuli. Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Daily Prompt - Fundamentals: Saudi Arabia, the world's largest oil exporter, lowered prices for Asian crude buyers to near four - year lows, aiming to regain market share. The US May ISM services PMI was 49.9, far below the expected 52, with the new orders index dropping 5.9 points to 46.4. US - EU trade negotiations progressed rapidly, and new US metal tariffs added urgency to the talks [3]. - Basis: On June 4, the spot price of Oman crude was $64.98 per barrel, and that of Qatar Marine crude was $64.66 per barrel. The basis was 16.78 yuan/barrel, with the spot price higher than the futures price [3]. - Inventory: US API crude inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels in the week ending May 30, exceeding the expected 0.9 million barrels. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels, also exceeding the expected 1.035 million barrels. Cushing area inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels. As of June 4, Shanghai crude oil futures inventory remained unchanged at 4.029 million barrels [3]. - Market: The 20 - day moving average was flat, and the price was near the moving average [3]. - Main Position: As of May 27, the main long positions in WTI and Brent crude oil both decreased [3]. - Expectation: Short - term trading is expected to range between 455 - 465, and long - term long positions should be held lightly [3]. 3.2 Recent News - Geopolitics: Ukrainian President Zelensky said Russia's "peace conditions" were "ultimatums," but he was still willing to meet with Russian President Putin. Putin was skeptical about the possibility of a summit [5]. - Inventory: The US EIA reported that last week's commercial crude inventory decreased by 4.3 million barrels to 436.06 million barrels, while gasoline inventory increased by 5.2 million barrels to 228.3 million barrels, and distillate inventory increased by 4.2 million barrels to 107.6 million barrels. Refinery crude processing volume increased by 670,000 barrels per day, and refinery utilization rate rose by 3.2% to 93.4%. US crude net imports increased by 389,000 barrels, and Cushing crude inventory increased by 0.576 million barrels [5]. - Price: Saudi Aramco lowered the official selling price (OSP) of its flagship Arab Light crude oil sold to Asia in July to a premium of $1.20 per barrel over the Oman/Dubai average, down from $1.40 in June [5]. 3.3 Long - Short Concerns - Bullish Factors: The US - Iran negotiation was close to breakdown, and the Russia - Ukraine conflict intensified [6]. - Bearish Factors: OPEC+ increased production for three consecutive months, and the US had continuous tense trade relations with other economies [6]. - Market Driver: Short - term geopolitical conflicts provided upward momentum, while medium - to long - term demand was expected to pick up during the summer peak season [6]. 3.4 Fundamental Data - Futures Market: The settlement prices of Brent, WTI, SC, and Oman crude oil were $64.86, $62.85, 467.6 yuan, and $64.74 respectively, with changes of - 0.77 (- 1.17%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 2.60 (0.56%), and 0.22 (0.34%) compared to the previous day [7]. - Spot Market: The spot prices of UK Brent, WTI, Oman, Shengli, and Dubai crude oil were $66.61, $62.85, $64.98, $63.43, and $64.65 respectively, with changes of - 1.49 (- 2.19%), - 0.56 (- 0.88%), 0.48 (0.74%), 0.78 (1.25%), and 0.17 (0.26%) compared to the previous day [9]. - Inventory Data: API inventory decreased by 3.3 million barrels to 461.098 million barrels in the week ending May 30. EIA inventory decreased by 4.304 million barrels to 436.059 million barrels in the same week [10][15]. 3.5 Position Data - WTI Crude Oil: As of May 27, the net long position was 165,694, a decrease of 20,726 [18]. - Brent Crude Oil: As of May 27, the net long position was 158,950, a decrease of 4,379 [21].