永安期货原油成品油早报-20250605

Report Summary 1. Industry Investment Rating No industry investment rating is provided in the report. 2. Core View - Short - term: Oil prices are expected to maintain a volatile and upward - biased pattern, with Brent spreads stronger than the Dubai market. This is due to high short - term refinery profits, expected increase in refinery operations, decline in leading indicators of US shale oil, and the stalemate in US - Iran negotiations [5][6]. - Medium - to long - term: Crude oil is expected to be in a bearish pattern due to OPEC's supply policies and supply - demand surplus [6]. 3. Summary by Directory 3.1 Oil Price Data - From May 28 to June 4, 2025, WTI prices decreased by $0.56, BRENT by $0.77, and DUBAI by $0.75. SC prices increased by 5.70, while OMAN decreased by 1.01 [3]. - For refined products, domestic gasoline prices increased by 20.00, and domestic diesel prices remained unchanged, with their spreads to BRENT also showing corresponding changes [3]. 3.2 Daily News - Iran's Supreme Leader Khamenei stated that completely giving up uranium enrichment goes against Iran's interests and rejected US coercion [3]. - Saudi Arabia hopes OPEC+ to further increase oil production by at least 411,000 barrels per day in August and possibly September to regain market share [3]. - Canada's Natural Resources Company restarted the Jackfish 1 oil sands project, aiming to fully restore its 36,500 - barrel - per - day capacity by June 7 [4]. 3.3 Regional Fundamentals - In the week of May 23, US crude oil exports increased by 794,000 barrels per day to 4.301 million barrels per day, and domestic production increased by 900 barrels to 13.401 million barrels per day [4][5]. - Commercial crude oil inventories (excluding strategic reserves) decreased by 2.795 million barrels to 440 million barrels, a 0.63% decline, while strategic petroleum reserve (SPR) inventories increased by 820,000 barrels to 401.3 million barrels, a 0.2% increase [5]. - The four - week average supply of US crude oil products was 19.897 million barrels per day, a 0.22% decrease compared to the same period last year [5]. - In China, the main refinery operating rate decreased, while the Shandong local refinery operating rate increased. Gasoline and diesel production both increased, with significant inventory reduction. Main refinery comprehensive profits rebounded, and local refinery comprehensive profits improved [5]. 3.4 Weekly View - This week, oil prices fluctuated. After OPEC's July production increase decision, prices rose over the weekend due to geopolitical tensions such as Ukraine's drone attacks on Russian territory, the unresolved US - Iran negotiations, and wildfires in Canada's oil - producing province [5]. - Fundamentally, global oil inventories were basically flat, US commercial crude oil inventories decreased more than expected, and gasoline and diesel inventories also decreased significantly. On the supply side, the number of US shale oil drilling rigs continued to decline, OPEC increased production as expected, and Iran's production increased in April [5][6]. - On the demand side, global refinery profits slightly declined but were still at a high level compared to the same period last year. US refinery operations were volatile and slightly lower than expected. With the start of the summer travel season, gasoline and jet fuel demand increased [6].