Report Industry Investment Ratings No relevant information provided. Core Views Nickel - The short - term fundamentals change little. The nickel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main reference range of 118,000 - 126,000. Attention should be paid to Indonesian policy changes [1]. Stainless Steel - The stainless - steel price is expected to be weak and fluctuate, with the main operating range of 12,600 - 13,200. Attention should be paid to the steel mill's production cut rhythm [3]. Lithium Carbonate - The short - term fundamentals still have pressure. The lithium carbonate price is expected to be weak and operate in the range of 56,000 - 62,000. Attention should be paid to upstream dynamics [5]. Tin - The short - term supply - side tightness boosts the tin price. Consider shorting on rallies above 260,000, and pay attention to the supply - side recovery rhythm [7]. Alumina - If the mine - end situation does not further ferment, the alumina price will be under pressure, with the lower reference cash cost of 2,700. Attention should be paid to domestic enterprise capacity changes and imported supply [8]. Aluminum - The short - term aluminum price will fluctuate, with the operating range of 19,000 - 21,000. Attention should be paid to inventory and demand changes [8]. Zinc - In the medium - to - long - term, adopt a short - on - rallies strategy. The main reference range is 21,500 - 23,500. Pay attention to zinc ore production growth and downstream demand changes [10]. Copper - The short - term copper price will fluctuate. The main focus is on the pressure level of 78,000 - 79,000. The downward space depends on real demand weakness, and the upward space depends on tariff expectation reversal or US economic risk release [13]. Summaries by Directory Price and Basis - Nickel: SMM 1 electrolytic nickel rose 0.47% to 123,425 yuan/ton; 1 Jinchuan nickel rose 0.42% to 124,575 yuan/ton; 1 imported nickel rose 0.51% to 122,425 yuan/ton [1]. - Stainless Steel: 304/2B (Wuxi Hongwang 2.0 coil) and 304/2B (Foshan Hongwang 2.0 coil) remained unchanged at 13,100 yuan/ton and 13,050 yuan/ton respectively [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: SMM battery - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.08% to 60,250 yuan/ton; SMM industrial - grade lithium carbonate均价 fell 0.09% to 58,650 yuan/ton [5]. - Tin: SMM 1 tin rose 2.04% to 255,500 yuan/ton; Yangtze 1 tin rose 2.03% to 256,000 yuan/ton [7]. - Aluminum: SMM A00 aluminum rose 0.80% to 20,280 yuan/ton; Yangtze aluminum A00 rose 0.80% to 20,270 yuan/ton [8]. - Zinc: SMM 0 zinc ingot rose 0.53% to 22,910 yuan/ton; SMM 0 zinc ingot (Guangdong) rose 0.66% to 22,810 yuan/ton [10]. - Copper: SMM 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.05% to 78,485 yuan/ton; SMM Guangdong 1 electrolytic copper rose 0.15% to 78,295 yuan/ton [13]. Cost of Electrolytic Nickel Production - Integrated MHP production cost of electrolytic nickel decreased by 0.49% to 126,132 yuan/ton; integrated high - matte production cost of electrolytic nickel increased by 1.05% to 133,478 yuan/ton [1]. New Energy Material Prices - Battery - grade nickel sulfate average price remained unchanged at 27,915 yuan/ton; battery - grade lithium carbonate average price fell 0.33% to 60,700 yuan/ton [1]. Monthly Spread - Nickel: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 220 yuan/ton from - 250 yuan/ton [1]. - Stainless Steel: 2507 - 2508 spread rose to - 25 yuan/ton from - 42 yuan/ton [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 40 yuan/ton from 40 yuan/ton [5]. - Tin: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to - 400 yuan/ton from - 240 yuan/ton [7]. - Aluminum: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 90 yuan/ton from 130 yuan/ton [8]. - Zinc: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 335 yuan/ton from 390 yuan/ton [10]. - Copper: 2506 - 2507 spread fell to 150 yuan/ton from 290 yuan/ton [13]. Supply and Inventory - Nickel: China's refined nickel production decreased by 2.62% to 35,350 tons; refined nickel imports increased by 8.18% to 8,832 tons [1]. - Stainless Steel: China's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production increased by 11.37% to 344.01 million tons; Indonesia's 300 - series stainless - steel crude steel production decreased by 6.67% to 42 million tons [3]. - Lithium Carbonate: May's lithium carbonate production decreased by 2.34% to 72,080 tons; demand increased by 4.81% to 93,938 tons [5]. - Tin: April's tin ore imports increased by 18.48% to 9,861 tons; SMM refined tin production decreased by 0.52% to 15,200 tons [7]. - Aluminum: May's alumina production increased by 2.66% to 727.21 million tons; electrolytic aluminum production increased by 3.41% to 372.90 million tons [8]. - Zinc: May's refined zinc production decreased by 1.08% to 54.94 million tons; April's refined zinc imports increased by 2.40% to 2.82 million tons [10]. - Copper: May's electrolytic copper production increased by 1.12% to 113.83 million tons; April's electrolytic copper imports decreased by 19.06% to 25 million tons [13].
广发期货《有色》日报-20250605
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-05 05:14