快手-W：业绩增长稳健，可灵 AI 商业变现提速-20250605

Investment Rating - The investment rating for the company is "Accumulate" [1] Core Views - The report highlights that AI is driving business growth, with Daily Active Users (DAU) reaching a historical high, and the commercialization of AI accelerating [3] Financial Summary - Revenue for FY2021A to FY2027E is projected to grow from 81,082 million CNY in FY2021A to 169,147 million CNY in FY2027E, with a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of approximately 12% [5] - Adjusted net profit is expected to increase from a loss of 18,852 million CNY in FY2021A to a profit of 28,728 million CNY in FY2027E, reflecting a significant turnaround [5] - The adjusted Price-to-Earnings (PE) ratio is projected to decrease from 20.3 in FY2023A to 7.2 in FY2027E, indicating improved profitability [5] Business Performance Overview - In Q1 FY2025, the company achieved revenue of 326.1 billion CNY, representing a year-on-year growth of 10.9% [8] - The DAU and Monthly Active Users (MAU) reached 408 million and 712 million respectively, with year-on-year growth of 3.6% and 2.1% [8] - E-commerce Gross Merchandise Volume (GMV) reached 332.3 billion CNY, growing by 15.4% year-on-year, with short video e-commerce GMV growth exceeding 40% [8] Profitability Forecast and Investment Recommendations - The revenue forecast for FY2025-2027E has been adjusted to 1,427 billion CNY, 1,569 billion CNY, and 1,691 billion CNY respectively, with adjusted net profit estimates of 204 billion CNY, 246 billion CNY, and 287 billion CNY [8] - The target price is set at 62.1 HKD, based on a 12x PE for FY2025, maintaining the "Accumulate" rating [8]