《能源化工》日报-20250605

Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content found. Core Views of the Report Polyester Industry - PX: Recent downstream demand and new device commissioning limit short - term downside. Strategies include focusing on 6500 support, 9 - 1 reverse spread, and narrowing PX - SC spread [20]. - PTA: Supply - demand weakens, but short - term support is strong due to raw materials. Strategies are to focus on 4600 support and 9 - 1 reverse spread [20]. - MEG: June supply remains low, with de - stocking expected. Strategies are to focus on 4200 support for EG09 and 9 - 1 positive spread [20]. - Short - fiber: Price and basis are boosted, but processing fee repair is limited. Strategies are similar to PTA for PF and expanding processing fee at low levels [20]. - Bottle - chip: June supply - demand may improve, processing fee is supported. Strategies are similar to PTA for PR and expanding processing fee at the lower end of 350 - 600 yuan/ton [20]. Methanol Industry - Market sentiment recovers, but the driving force is weak. There may be a short - term rebound, but the port's July inventory build - up expectation remains. The unilateral range is 2150 - 2350 [23]. PE and PP Industry - Plastic: Early June maintenance increases, imports are low, and inventory is expected to decline. PP: June maintenance returns, increasing supply pressure. Strategies are to go short on PP at high prices and expect LP spread to expand [31]. Crude Oil Industry - International oil prices rebound and then fall significantly. Short - term, the market is range - bound. Long - term, a band - trading approach is recommended. WTI range is [59, 69], Brent is [61, 71], and SC is [440, 500]. Options can use a straddle structure [36]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Caustic soda: Supply - side contradiction is limited, demand from alumina supports prices. Short - term, spot is strong, and consider expanding the near - month to 09 spread [40]. - PVC: Long - term, supply - demand is weak. Short - term, supply pressure increases, and demand is sluggish. Maintain a short - selling strategy with a range of 4500 - 5000 [40]. Urea Industry - The market has priced in strong supply and weak demand. Future supply contraction, cost support, agricultural demand time - difference, and potential export increase may form a multi - factor resonance [57]. Summary by Related Catalogs Polyester Industry - Prices and Spreads: Brent crude (August) on June 4 was 64.86 dollars/barrel, down 0.77 dollars from the previous day. CFR China PX was 852 dollars/ton, up 1 dollar [20]. - 开工率: Asian PX开工率 was 72.0%, up 2.6% from the previous period. PTA开工率 was 75.7%, down 1.4% [20]. Methanol Industry - Prices and Spreads: MA2601 closing price on June 4 was 2330 yuan/ton, up 41 yuan. The port - to - inland price difference increased [24]. - Inventory: Methanol enterprise inventory was 37.049%, up 4.38%. Methanol port inventory was 58.1 million tons, up 11.14% [24]. - 开工率: Upstream domestic enterprise开工率 was 12%, down 62.5%. Downstream外采MTO装置开工率 was 84.52%, up 1.0% [24]. PE and PP Industry - Prices and Spreads: L2601 closing price on June 4 was 7018 yuan/ton, up 82 yuan. The basis of some products decreased [27]. - Inventory: PE企业库存 was 51.8 million tons, up 7.41%. PP贸易商库存 was 13.6 million tons, down 11.05% [29][30]. - 开工率: PE装置开工率 was 76.8%, down 1.51%. PP装置开工率 was 75.4%, down 1.8% [29][30]. Crude Oil Industry - Prices and Spreads: Brent on June 5 was 64.77 dollars/barrel, down 0.09 dollars. The crack spread of some refined oils changed slightly [36]. - EIA Data: As of May 30, US crude production was 1340.8 million barrels/day, up 0.7 million barrels/day. Commercial crude inventory decreased by 430.4 million barrels [44]. Chlor - alkali Industry - Prices and Spreads: Shandong 32% liquid caustic soda equivalent price was 2750 yuan/ton, unchanged. The export profit of caustic soda decreased [40]. - 开工率: Caustic soda industry开工率 was 87.2%, up 0.4%. PVC总开工率 was 74.6%, up 1.5% [40]. - Inventory: Liquid caustic soda East China factory inventory was 20.8 million tons, up 1.8%. PVC总社会库存 was 36.3 million tons, down 1.5% [40]. Urea Industry - Prices and Spreads: 01 contract closing price on June 4 was 1706 yuan/ton, up 10 yuan. The spread between some contracts changed [51][52]. - Inventory: Domestic urea internal inventory was 103.54 million tons, up 5.48%. Port inventory was 20.50 million tons, unchanged [57]. - 开工率: Urea production factory开工率 was 90.16%, up 0.63% [57].