广发期货原木期货日报-20250605

Report Overview - The report is a log futures daily report dated June 5, 2025 [1] Investment Rating - No investment rating for the industry is provided in the report Core View - After May, log demand will enter the traditional off - season, New Zealand's shipments will decrease seasonally, the spot market will be stable with a weak trend, and the weak balance pattern of the fundamentals will continue. The current futures price is close to the phased bottom. The 07 contract will enter the delivery month for the first delivery, and there may be differences in the futures price under the logic of subsequent delivery costs. It is recommended to mainly stay on the sidelines for single - side trading and participate in reverse spreads [3] Summary by Category Futures and Spot Prices - Futures Prices: On June 4, compared with June 3, log 2507 closed at 758.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan or 0.85%; log 2509 closed at 777.0 yuan/cubic meter, down 9.0 yuan or 1.15%; log 2511 closed at 784.5 yuan/cubic meter, down 6.5 yuan or 0.82% [2] - Price Spreads: The 7 - 9 spread was - 18.5, up 2.5; the 9 - 11 spread was - 7.5, down 2.5; the 7 - 11 spread was - 26.0, unchanged [2] - Basis: The 07 contract basis was - 8.5, up 6.5; the 09 contract basis was - 27.0, up 9.0; the 11 contract basis was - 34.5, up 6.5 [2] - Spot Prices: Spot prices of various types of logs at ports such as Rizhao and Taicang remained unchanged on June 4 compared with June 3. For example, the price of 3.9A small radiata pine at Rizhao Port was 720.0 yuan/cubic meter, with no change [2] - Foreign Quotes: The CFR price of 4 - meter medium A radiata pine was 110 dollars/JAS cubic meter, and the CFR price of 11.8 - meter spruce was 123 euros/JAS cubic meter, both unchanged [2] - Import Cost: The RMB - US dollar exchange rate was 7.194, down 0.004; the import theoretical cost was 778.67 yuan, down 0.43 yuan [2] Supply - Monthly Supply: In April, port shipments were 200.3 million cubic meters, up 39.0 million cubic meters or 24.17% from March. The number of departing ships from New Zealand to China, Japan, and South Korea was 66.0, up 8.0 or 13.79% [2] Inventory - Weekly Inventory: As of May 30, China's main port log inventory was 341.00 million cubic meters, down 2.0 million cubic meters or 0.58% from the previous period. Shandong's inventory was 189.50 million cubic meters, down 2.5 million cubic meters or 1.30%; Jiangsu's inventory was 113.52 million cubic meters, up 3.6 million cubic meters or 3.23% [3] Demand - Weekly Demand: As of May 30, China's daily average log出库 volume was 6.28 million cubic meters, up 0.07 million cubic meters or 1% from the previous week. Shandong's daily average出库 volume was 2.29 million cubic meters, down 0.07 million cubic meters or 3%; Jiangsu's was 3.31 million cubic meters, up 0.11 million cubic meters or 3% [3]