Report 1: Natural Rubber Industry Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In the context of expected increase in supply and weakening demand, it is predicted that the subsequent rubber price will show a weakening and fluctuating trend. Short positions should be held, and attention should be paid to the performance at the 13,000 level, as well as the raw material volume in the producing areas and macro - event disturbances [1]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai rose from 13,350 yuan/ton on June 3 to 13,400 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 50 yuan/ton or 0.37% [1]. - The basis of whole - milk rubber (switched to the 2509 contract) decreased from - 100 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 255 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 155 yuan/ton or 155.00% [1]. Monthly Spread - The 9 - 1 spread decreased from - 810 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 832 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 25 yuan/ton or 3.09% [1]. Fundamental Data - In April, Thailand's natural rubber production decreased from 149.2 ten - tons to 105.7 ten - tons, a decrease of 43.5 ten - tons or 29.16% [1]. - In April, China's natural rubber production increased from 15.8 ten - tons to 58.1 ten - tons, an increase of 42.3 ten - tons [1]. Inventory Change - The bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) increased from 614,189 tons on the previous day to 614,584 tons, an increase of 385 tons or 0.06% [1]. - The factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE decreased from 43,544 tons to 17,641 tons, a decrease of 25,903 tons or 59.49% [1]. Report 2: Glass and Soda Ash Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View - Glass: It will continue to be under pressure, fluctuate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - Soda Ash: The spot market is average, the market sentiment is still pessimistic. In the short - term, during the rainy season, the glass price may stop falling. For the 09 contract, a long - short spread trade between the 7th and 9th contracts can be considered, and short - term short - selling operations on the far - month contracts during rebounds are recommended [2]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Glass - related Prices and Spreads - The central China glass price decreased from 1,110 yuan/ton to 1,070 yuan/ton, a decrease of 40 yuan/ton or 3.60% [2]. - The basis of the glass 2505 contract decreased from 91 yuan/ton to 62 yuan/ton, a decrease of 29 yuan/ton or 31.87% [2]. Soda Ash - related Prices and Spreads - The soda ash 2509 contract price increased from 1,185 yuan/ton to 1,225 yuan/ton, an increase of 40 yuan/ton or 3.28% [2]. - The basis of the 05 contract decreased from 197 yuan/ton to 165 yuan/ton, a decrease of 32 yuan/ton or 13.97% [2]. Supply - Soda ash weekly output increased from 67.77 tons to 68.50 tons, an increase of 0.73 tons or 1.08% [2]. - Float glass daily melting volume increased from 15.67 tons to 15.77 tons, an increase of 0.1 tons or 0.64% [2]. Inventory - Soda ash 2505 contract inventory increased from 1,221 tons to 1,253 tons, an increase of 32 tons or 2.62% [2]. - Glass factory inventory decreased from 6,776.90 ten - thousand standard boxes to 6,776.20 ten - thousand standard boxes, a decrease of 0.7 ten - thousand standard boxes [2]. Report 3: Industrial Silicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to high supply and high warehouse receipts in the fundamentals. Although demand may recover to some extent, it is difficult to digest the relatively high supply increase. However, rising raw material prices can strengthen cost support, and concentrated short - position closing may lead to a price increase [3]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Main Contract Basis - The price of East China oxygen - passed SI5530 industrial silicon decreased from 8,200 yuan/ton on June 3 to 8,150 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 50 yuan/ton or 0.61% [3]. - The basis of SI4210 industrial silicon increased from 890 yuan/ton on June 3 to 980 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 90 yuan/ton or 10.11% [3]. Monthly Spread - The 2506 - 2507 spread decreased from 10 yuan/ton on June 3 to - 260 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 270 yuan/ton or 2700.00% [3]. Fundamental Data (Monthly) - In April, the national industrial silicon production decreased from 34.22 tons to 30.08 tons, a decrease of 4.14 tons or 12.10% [3]. - In April, the Xinjiang industrial silicon production decreased from 21.08 tons to 16.75 tons, a decrease of 4.33 tons or 20.55% [3]. Inventory Change - Xinjiang factory - warehouse inventory increased from 18.74 tons to 19.01 tons, an increase of 0.27 tons or 1.44% [3]. - Social inventory increased from 58.20 tons to 58.90 tons, an increase of 0.7 tons or 1.20% [3]. Report 4: Polysilicon Spot and Futures Daily Report 1. Report Industry Investment Rating No relevant content provided. 2. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. Currently, there is an expectation of supply - side contraction in the polysilicon industry. Attention should be paid to the support at the 33,000 - 34,000 range [4]. 3. Summary by Relevant Catalogs Spot Price and Basis - The average price of single - crystal PERC battery slices (182mm) decreased from 0.285 yuan/piece on June 3 to 0.275 yuan/piece on June 4, a decrease of 0.01 yuan/piece or 3.51% [4]. - The N - type material basis (average price) decreased from 2,140 yuan/ton on June 3 to 1,445 yuan/ton on June 4, a decrease of 695 yuan/ton or 32.48% [4]. Futures Price and Monthly Spread - The PS2506 contract price increased from 34,360 yuan/ton on June 3 to 35,055 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 895 yuan/ton or 2.02% [4]. - The PS2506 - PS2507 spread increased from 1,940 yuan/ton on June 3 to 2,935 yuan/ton on June 4, an increase of 995 yuan/ton or 51.29% [4]. Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly) - Weekly silicon wafer production increased from 13.3 GW to 13.4 GW, an increase of 0.1 GW or 0.75% [4]. - In May, polysilicon production increased from 9.54 tons to 9.61 tons, an increase of 0.07 tons or 0.73% [4]. Inventory Change - Polysilicon inventory increased from 26.00 tons to 27.00 tons, an increase of 1.00 tons or 3.85% [4]. - Silicon wafer inventory decreased from 18.95 GW to 18.57 GW, a decrease of 0.38 GW or 2.01% [4].
广发期货《特殊商品》日报-20250605
Guang Fa Qi Huo·2025-06-05 05:43