摩根士丹利：美国 EDA 限制措施的影响

Investment Rating - The report assigns an "In-Line" investment rating for the Greater China Technology Semiconductors industry [7]. Core Insights - The US EDA restrictions are expected to impact future chip designs in China, although current designs can continue with existing licenses [1][9]. - The self-sufficiency ratio of China's semiconductors has improved to 24% in 2024, with expectations to reach 30% by 2027 [38][40]. - The merger between Hygon and Sugon is seen as a significant step towards a unified domestic AI ecosystem [12]. Summary by Sections EDA Restrictions and Impact - The US has restricted EDA tool shipments to China, affecting future designs but not current projects [1][9]. - Chinese IC design houses can still operate using overseas licenses, mitigating immediate impacts on certain projects [9]. Market Developments - Xiaomi has launched its 15S Pro smartphone featuring an in-house 3nm chipset, but future designs may face challenges due to EDA restrictions [3][9]. - Huawei's MateBook Fold utilizes a Kirin X90 chipset, indicating progress in local chip development [10][11]. Semiconductor Localization Progress - China's semiconductor self-sufficiency ratio rose from 20% in 2023 to 24% in 2024, with expectations for further growth [38][40]. - The report highlights the importance of local EDA tools and equipment suppliers as strategic imperatives for China's semiconductor localization [41]. Stock Performance - Recent stock performance shows outperformers like ACMR and Empyrean, while underperformers include SMIC and Espressif [22][23]. - MediaTek is expected to remain stable despite Xiaomi's chipset launch, maintaining an "Overweight" rating [16]. Future Expectations - The report anticipates tighter US export restrictions will further drive the localization of CPU and GPU production in China [41]. - Continued capacity expansion by Chinese memory vendors is expected to enhance their market share [41].