摩根士丹利：中国金融行业-为何我们对金融体系周期触底更有信心

Investment Rating - The report rates the China Financials industry as Attractive [7] Core Viewpoints - The report expresses confidence that China's financial system cycle has bottomed, driven by a decade-long financial cleanup, the resolution of major credit risks, and the near bottoming of loan and financial yields [1][14][48] - The financial system is transitioning back to a development mode focused on the real economy, with expectations of resumed growth for mid-sized banks and a revival in IPO activity [3][32] Summary by Sections Financial System Recovery - The report indicates that the most significant financial risks, such as local government financing and property-related risks, peaked in 2024, allowing for a return to a regulated development mode [2][27] - It highlights that the financial cleanup efforts over the past decade have effectively managed major financial sector risks, leading to a more stable environment for growth [29][32] Loan and Financial Yields - A bottoming of loan and financial firm asset yields is anticipated after five years of decline, attributed to more rational credit policies and loan pricing [4][48] - The report notes that modest rate cuts and efforts to prevent excessively low loan yields are indicative of a shift towards a more market-oriented approach [5][66] Market Dynamics and Future Outlook - The report expects double-digit returns for key beneficiaries in the financial sector, including Ping An, AIA, and mid-sized banks, with projected dividend yields exceeding 6% for 2025 [12][26] - It emphasizes that the absence of major regulatory tightening initiatives will support the revitalization of the IPO and private equity markets over time [26][28] Economic Indicators - The report cites a rebound in total social financing (TSF) growth, reaching 8.7% year-on-year in April 2025, driven by government bond issuance [18][25] - It also mentions that local government funding has stabilized after a significant decline, indicating a recovery in property-related income [42][44]