贸易乱局拖累经济，欧洲央行将降息 - 彭博

Investment Rating - The report indicates that the European Central Bank (ECB) is expected to lower interest rates for the eighth time, with a forecasted reduction of 0.25 percentage points to 2% [1]. Core Insights - The ongoing trade tensions initiated by U.S. President Donald Trump are negatively impacting inflation and economic outlook, prompting the ECB to consider further rate cuts [1]. - Economic growth and inflation in Europe may weaken in the coming months, but significant military and infrastructure spending could support long-term growth [3]. - The ECB faces challenges in adjusting monetary policy due to the lack of specific details on fiscal stimulus measures [3]. - Analysts predict that the ECB will maintain its previous economic forecasts despite fundamental changes in the economic backdrop due to trade issues [11]. Summary by Sections Interest Rates - ECB policymakers have nearly completed measures to lower borrowing costs, with discussions about slowing the pace of easing [4]. - The ECB is expected to pause rate cuts after July, with a potential drop in deposit rates to 1.75% [10]. Economic Forecast - Analysts project growth in the Eurozone for 2025 at 0.9%, with inflation expected at 2.3% for the same year [12]. - The Euro has strengthened significantly since March, and lower energy prices are providing downward pressure on prices [11]. Trade and Geopolitical Risks - The report highlights that U.S. policies and geopolitical tensions are the most significant risks to the Eurozone economy [17]. - The potential for increased tariffs on European goods by the U.S. could escalate trade conflicts, impacting economic stability [15].