摩根士丹利：全球宏观策略-G10 外汇图表资料集

Investment Ratings - USD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish [2] - EUR View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish [3] - GBP View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish [4] - JPY View: Bullish | Skew: Bullish [5] - CHF View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish [6] - NOK View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish [7] - SEK View: Neutral | Skew: Bearish [8] - AUD View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish [9] - NZD View: Neutral | Skew: Bullish [10] - CAD View: Bearish | Skew: Bearish [11] Core Insights - Continued weakness of the US dollar is expected as US rates converge with global rates, leading to a forecasted decline of the DXY to 91 [2][21] - The EUR/USD is anticipated to rise above 1.20 due to increased FX hedging by European investors and US-EU rate convergence [3][22] - GBP is expected to outperform non-G4 DM peers but will not surpass EUR and JPY due to its high carry-to-vol ratio [4][23] - JPY is projected to benefit from safe-haven demand amid US policy uncertainty [5][24] - CHF is expected to remain stable with a bullish skew, benefiting from reduced USD exposure [6][25] - NOK faces bearish pressure due to oil price dynamics and limited benefits from capital repatriation [7][26] - SEK is expected to face bearish pressure due to weaker GDP growth and potential Riksbank actions [8][27] - AUD is likely to underperform due to its correlation with the S&P 500, reducing the incentive to hedge USD exposure [9][28] - NZD is expected to see positive yield shifts as the economy recovers [10][29] - CAD is forecasted to weaken against CHF due to anticipated BoC cuts and lower oil prices [11][30] Summary by Currency USD - Continued DXY weakness expected due to convergence of US and global rates [2][21] - Current account deficit at 3.8% of GDP amid high consumption [65][66] EUR - EUR/USD projected to rise above 1.20 due to FX hedging and rate convergence [3][22] - Current account surplus driven by goods exports [101][102] GBP - GBP expected to gain against non-G4 peers but not outperform EUR and JPY [4][23] - Current account deficit stabilized but financed by volatile investments [137][138] JPY - JPY to benefit from safe-haven demand amid US economic risks [5][24] - Positive current account balance with a narrowing trade deficit [170][172] CHF - CHF expected to benefit from USD weakness while maintaining stability against EUR [6][25] - Elevated current account surplus driven by goods [206][208] NOK - NOK faces downside pressure linked to oil prices and limited capital repatriation benefits [7][26] - Current account surplus supported by oil and gas exports [238][242] SEK - SEK expected to face bearish pressure due to underpricing of Riksbank's cutting cycle [8][27] - Current account surplus driven by trade [270][274] AUD - AUD likely to underperform due to reduced incentive to hedge USD exposure [9][28] - Current account deficit has emerged as imports rise [300][302] NZD - NZD expected to see positive yield shifts as the economy recovers [10][29] - Current account deficit narrowing after a peak in 2022 [335][337] CAD - CAD forecasted to weaken due to negative spillovers from the US [11][30] - Current account deficit narrowed in 1Q25 [371][373]