《特殊商品》日报-20250605

1. Natural Rubber Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In the context of expected increased supply and weak demand, the subsequent rubber price is expected to show a weak oscillation. It is recommended to hold short positions and observe the performance at the 13,000 level, while paying attention to the raw material supply situation in each production area and macro - event disturbances [1]. Summary by Relevant Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On June 4, the price of Yunnan state - owned standard rubber (SCRWF) in Shanghai was 13,400 yuan/ton, up 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the full - milk basis (switched to the 2509 contract) was - 255 yuan/ton, down 155 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of Thai standard mixed rubber was 13,600 yuan/ton, up 100 yuan/ton from the previous day. The price of cup rubber on the international market was 44.55 Thai baht/kg, down 1.40 Thai baht/kg from June 2; the price of glue was 56.00 Thai baht/kg, down 1.50 Thai baht/kg from June 2 [1]. - Monthly Spread: On June 4, the 9 - 1 spread was - 832, down 25 from the previous day; the 1 - 5 spread was - 25, the same as the previous day; the 5 - 9 spread was 860, up 25 from the previous day [1]. - Fundamental Data: In April, Thailand's production was 1057,000 tons, down 435,000 tons from the previous month; Indonesia's production was 19,410,000 tons, down 1,520,000 tons from the previous month; India's production was 454,000 tons, down 76,000 tons from the previous month; China's production was 581,000 tons, up 423,000 tons from the previous month. The weekly operating rate of semi - steel tires for automobiles was 78.25%, up 0.03 percentage points from the previous week; the weekly operating rate of all - steel tires was 64.80%, down 0.16 percentage points from the previous week. In April, the domestic tire production was 102,002,000 pieces, down 5,444,000 pieces from the previous month; the tire export volume was 57,390,000 pieces, down 4,900,000 pieces from the previous month. The total import volume of natural rubber in April was 523,200 tons, down 70,900 tons from the previous month; the import volume of natural and synthetic rubber (including latex) was 690,000 tons, down 70,000 tons from the previous month [1]. - Inventory Changes: On June 4, the bonded area inventory (bonded + general trade inventory) was 614,584 tons, up 385 tons from the previous day; the factory - warehouse futures inventory of natural rubber on the SHFE was 17,641 tons, down 25,903 tons from the previous week [1]. 2. Glass and Soda Ash Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View - Glass: The glass price will continue to be under pressure, oscillate weakly, and should be treated bearishly [2]. - Soda Ash: The soda ash price is expected to continue to be under pressure in the medium - to - long term. In June, the implementation of maintenance can be tracked. If the maintenance situation is good, it will be beneficial to the June - July contracts. For trading, consider the 7 - 9 positive spread in the inter - month and short - sell on the rebound of the far - month contract for short - term operations [2]. Summary by Relevant Directory - Glass - Related Price and Spread: On June 4, the North China glass quotation was 1,160 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,290 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,070 yuan/ton, down 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the South China quotation was 1,320 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Glass 2505 was 1,098 yuan/ton, up 29 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of Glass 2509 was 988 yuan/ton, up 34 yuan/ton from the previous day. The 05 basis was 62 yuan/ton, down 29 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Soda Ash - Related Price and Spread: On June 4, the North China soda ash quotation was 1,450 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the East China quotation was 1,380 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Central China quotation was 1,350 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the Northwest quotation was 1,080 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day. The price of Soda Ash 2509 was 1,185 yuan/ton, up 40 yuan/ton from the previous day; the 05 basis was 229 yuan/ton, down 32 yuan/ton from the previous day [2]. - Supply Volume: On May 30, the soda ash operating rate was 78.57%, down 0.06 percentage points from May 23; the weekly soda ash output was 685,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from May 23; the float glass daily melting volume was 157,700 tons, up 1,000 tons from May 23; the photovoltaic daily melting volume was 99,990 tons, the same as May 23 [2]. - Inventory: On May 30, the glass factory warehouse was 67,762,000 weight - cases, down 7,000 weight - cases from May 23; the soda ash factory warehouse was 162,430 tons, up 2,200 tons from May 23; the soda ash delivery warehouse was 34,750 tons, down 1,800 tons from May 23; the glass factory's soda ash inventory days were 18.1 days, the same as before [2]. 3. Industrial Silicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View The industrial silicon price is still under pressure due to the difficulty of significant increase in demand and the expected growth in production. However, the rise in raw material prices is beneficial to strengthen the cost support, and the concentrated short - position closing will bring a wave of price increase [3]. Summary by Relevant Directory - Spot Price and Main Contract Basis: On June 4, the price of East China oxygen - passing SI5530 industrial silicon was 8,150 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day; the price of East China SI4210 industrial silicon was 8,850 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the price of Xinjiang 99 - silicon was 7,600 yuan/ton, down 50 yuan/ton from the previous day [3]. - Monthly Spread: On June 4, the 2506 - 2507 spread was - 260, down 270 from the previous day; the 2507 - 2508 spread was - 10, up 5 from the previous day; the 2508 - 2509 spread was - 10, the same as the previous day [3]. - Fundamental Data (Monthly): In April, the national industrial silicon output was 300,800 tons, down 41,400 tons from the previous month; Xinjiang's output was 167,500 tons, down 43,300 tons from the previous month; Yunnan's output was 13,500 tons, up 1,200 tons from the previous month; Sichuan's output was 11,300 tons, up 6,700 tons from the previous month. The national operating rate was 51.23%, down 6.57 percentage points from the previous month; Xinjiang's operating rate was 60.74%, down 17.31 percentage points from the previous month; Yunnan's operating rate was 18.13%, down 1.84 percentage points from the previous month; Sichuan's operating rate was 7.30%, up 6.81 percentage points from the previous month [3]. - Inventory Changes: On June 4, the Xinjiang factory warehouse inventory was 190,100 tons, up 2,700 tons from the previous week; the Yunnan factory warehouse inventory was 24,700 tons, up 600 tons from the previous week; the Sichuan factory warehouse inventory was 22,800 tons, up 300 tons from the previous week; the social inventory was 589,000 tons, up 7,000 tons from the previous week; the warehouse - receipt inventory was 309,000 tons, down 4,400 tons from the previous day; the non - warehouse - receipt inventory was 280,000 tons, up 11,400 tons from the previous day [3]. 4. Polysilicon Industry Report Industry Investment Rating Not mentioned in the report. Report's Core View In June, the polysilicon market is expected to remain in a situation of weak supply and demand. If there is no further production cut, there is a risk of inventory accumulation. However, due to the expected contraction of the supply side, if the production decreases and the supply - side pressure eases, the inventory is expected to be gradually reduced. Attention should be paid to the support in the range of 33,000 - 34,000 yuan/ton [4]. Summary by Relevant Directory - Spot Price and Basis: On June 4, the average price of N - type re -投料 was 36,500 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of P - type cauliflower - like polysilicon was 30,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day; the average price of N - type granular silicon was 34,000 yuan/ton, the same as the previous day [4]. - Futures Price and Monthly Spread: On June 4, the price of PS2506 was 35,055 yuan/ton, up 895 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2506 - PS2507 spread was 2,935 yuan/ton, up 995 yuan/ton from the previous day; the PS2507 - PS2508 spread was 850 yuan/ton, down 70 yuan/ton from the previous day [4]. - Fundamental Data (Weekly and Monthly): Weekly, the silicon wafer output was 134,000 CM, up 1,000 CM from the previous week; the polysilicon output was 21,600 tons, up 100 tons from the previous week. Monthly, in May, the polysilicon output was 96,100 tons, up 700 tons from the previous month; in April, the polysilicon import volume was 2,900 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month; the export volume was 2,000 tons, down 200 tons from the previous month [4]. - Inventory Changes: On June 4, the polysilicon inventory was 270,000 tons, up 10,000 tons from the previous day; the silicon wafer inventory was 185,700 CM, down 3,800 CM from the previous day; the polysilicon warehouse receipts were 1,920 lots, up 350 lots from the previous day [4].